19596 6 105483 3 320770 document 105483 s11113-024-09867-6.pdf application/pdf 740f8028266ccef0ed5a4eba79ec91e8 MD5 1884253 2024-04-08 07:50:18 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19596/1/s11113-024-09867-6.pdf 19596 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105483 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105483 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105483 archive 2 disk0/00/01/95/96 2024-04-08 07:52:31 2024-04-08 07:52:31 2024-04-08 07:52:31 article show Caballero Reina J. Crespo Cuaresma J. 1838 Fenz K. Zellmann J. Yankov T. Taha A. pub POPJUS MIG Migration; Gravity model; Economic growth; Forecasting This study introduces a comprehensive econometric framework based on gravity equations and designed to forecast migrant flows between countries. The model’s theoretical underpinnings are validated through empirical data, and we show that the model has better out-of-sample predictive ability than alternative global models. We explore the quantitative effects of various socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic factors on migration and illustrate its use to obtain scenario-driven projections of bilateral migration, assessing the potential contributions of migration to population and GDP dynamics in Germany and Portugal for the period 2021–2025. Our projection results highlight the critical role of immigration in sustaining population levels and economic growth, particularly in the context of ageing populations and decreasing fertility rates across Europe. 2024-04-02 doi:10.1007/s11113-024-09867-6 58 public Population Research and Policy Review 43 2 e29 TRUE 0167-5923 info:eu-repo/semantics/article