Forecasting the Early Impact of COVID-19 on Physician Supply in EU Countries

19621 8 105624 2 321141 document 105624 IJHPM-Klimek-2024.pdf application/pdf 6de91e5f2cf4fa0366d1ed83102de938 MD5 1116828 2024-04-16 07:21:33 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19621/1/IJHPM-Klimek-2024.pdf 19621 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

IJHPM-Klimek-2024.pdf

accepted 105626 1 321157 document 105626 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 643b574129bdb13f3fa2ab0b519929ef MD5 12116 2024-04-16 07:31:36 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19621/2/indexcodes.txt 19621 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105624 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105624 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105624 archive 353 disk0/00/01/96/21 2024-04-16 07:23:18 2024-10-07 14:10:15 2024-04-16 07:23:18 article show Klimek P. Ledebur K. Gyimesi M. Ostermann H. Thurner S. 1918 Forecasting the Early Impact of COVID-19 on Physician Supply in EU Countries pub prog_esm Healthcare Workforce Planning COVID-19 Population Dynamic Models Background Many countries faced health workforce challenges even before the pandemic, such as impending retirements, negative population growth, or sub-optimal allocation of resources across health sectors. Current quantitative models are often of limited use, either because they require extensive individual-level data to be properly calibrated, or (in the absence of such data) because they are too simplistic to capture important demographic changes or disruptive epidemiological shocks such as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Method We propose a population-dynamic and stock-flow-consistent approach to physician supply forecasting that is complex enough to account for dynamically changing behaviour, while requiring only publicly available time-series data for full calibration. We demonstrate the utility of this model by applying it to 21 European countries to forecast the supply of generalist and specialist physicians to 2040, and the impact of increased health care utilisation due to Covid on this supply. Results Compared with the workforce needed to maintain physician density at 2019 levels, we find that in many countries there is indeed a significant trend towards decreasing generalist density at the expense of increasing specialist density. The trends for specialists are exacerbated by expectations of negative population growth in many Southern and Eastern European countries. Compared to the expected demographic changes in the population and the health workforce, we expect a limited impact of Covid on these trends, even under conservative modelling assumptions. Finally, we generalise the approach to a multiprofessional, multi-regional and multi-sectoral model for Austria, where we find an additional suboptimal distribution in the supply of contracted versus non-contracted (private) physicians. Conclusion It is therefore vital to develop tools for decision-makers to influence the allocation and supply of doctors across specialties and sectors to address these imbalances. 2024-02 published doi:10.34172/ijhpm.2024.7555 307 public International Journal of Health Policy and Management 13 1 1-11 TRUE 2322-5939 no info:eu-repo/semantics/article