Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature

19645 10 105731 2 321422 document 105731 s41558-024-01990-8.pdf application/pdf b8745580e4d102c6fcd803ac11d02f51 MD5 7427724 2024-04-18 08:23:13 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19645/1/s41558-024-01990-8.pdf 19645 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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published 105732 1 321429 document 105732 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 0407677df478a020905ca8606bfec11d MD5 13362 2024-04-18 08:32:23 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19645/2/indexcodes.txt 19645 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105731 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105731 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105731 archive 2 disk0/00/01/96/45 2024-04-18 08:27:43 2024-10-07 14:19:15 2024-04-18 08:27:43 article show 1 Waidelich P. Batibeniz F. Rising J. Kikstra J.S. 2256 0000-0001-9405-1228 Seneviratne S.I. Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature pub ECE IACC S3 TISS Estimates of global economic damage from climate change assess the effect of annual temperature changes. However, the roles of precipitation, temperature variability and extreme events are not yet known. Here, by combining projections of climate models with empirical dose–response functions translating shifts in temperature means and variability, rainfall patterns and extreme precipitation into economic damage, we show that at +3 °C global average losses reach 10% of gross domestic product, with worst effects (up to 17%) in poorer, low-latitude countries. Relative to annual temperature damage, the additional impacts of projecting variability and extremes are smaller and dominated by interannual variability, especially at lower latitudes. However, accounting for variability and extremes when estimating the temperature dose–response function raises global economic losses by nearly two percentage points and exacerbates economic tail risks. These results call for region-specific risk assessments and the integration of other climate variables for a better understanding of climate change impacts. 2024-04-17 Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41558-024-01990-8 3149 public Nature Climate Change 14 592-599 TRUE 1758-678X https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.3734127 data https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.10465253 data https://github.com/ccallahan45/CallahanMankin_ExtremeHeatEconomics_2022 author Effective green financial policies for the low-carbon transition (GREEFIN, H2020 948220) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/948220 /EU//GREENFIN info:eu-repo/semantics/article