Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale

19651 7 105759 2 321510 document 105759 1-s2.0-S0169204624000896-main.pdf application/pdf 5bd1091b9ae938b07d91e243cfd0a791 MD5 1746869 2024-04-22 07:14:51 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19651/1/1-s2.0-S0169204624000896-main.pdf 19651 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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published 105761 2 321524 document 105761 lightbox.jpg image/png 5c2cc14912639abaa0f2ada7a444dc27 MD5 55016 2024-04-22 07:24:57 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19651/2/lightbox.jpg 19651 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105759 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105759 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105759 archive 353 disk0/00/01/96/51 2024-04-22 07:18:11 2025-06-04 05:00:36 2024-04-22 07:18:11 article show Esperon-Rodriguez M. Gallagher R.V. Souverijns N. Lejeune Q. Schleussner C.-F. 9915 0000-0001-8471-848X Tjoelker M.G. Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale pub ECE ICI Climate change; Maximum temperature; Precipitation; Safety margin; Species selection; Urban heat; Urban tree Climate change represents a threat to the performance and persistence of urban forests and the multiple benefits they provide to city dwellers. Here, we use a novel approach to identify species and areas at high risk of climate change using the city of Melbourne, Australia, as a case study. We derive a safety margin, calculated based on climatic tolerance to two extreme climate variables (maximum temperature of the warmest month, MTWM; precipitation of the driest quarter, PDQ), for 474 tree species recorded in Melbourne for baseline (average for 2011–2020) and future (2041–2070) climatic conditions. For MTWM, 218 species (46%) are exceeding baseline climatic safety margins; this number is predicted to increase to 322 species (68%) by 2055 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5. For PDQ, 255 and 257 species (54%) are identified as at risk for baseline and future climates, respectively. Using georeferenced locations of trees and high-resolution climate data, we map spatial patterns in climate risk, showing high risk areas across the city. We demonstrate how using urban tree inventories and climate risk metrics can aid in the identification of vulnerable species and locations at high climate risk to prioritise areas for monitoring and assist urban planning. 2024-08 published doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2024.105090 3686 public Landscape and Urban Planning 248 e105090 TRUE 01692046 Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE, H2020 101003687) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003687/EU//PROVIDE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess