Least-cost and 2 °C-compliant mitigation pathways robust to physical uncertainty, economic paradigms, and intergenerational cost distribution

19696 7 105963 2 322038 document 105963 Bossy_2024_Environ._Res.__Climate_3_025005.pdf application/pdf 06827e537418015413f61d7d5c6bf879 MD5 1861580 2024-05-06 08:15:48 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19696/1/Bossy_2024_Environ._Res.__Climate_3_025005.pdf 19696 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Bossy_2024_Environ._Res.__Climate_3_025005.pdf

published 105965 1 322053 document 105965 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ 540273d897b8431ac064e54f1fcee4e3 MD5 12652 2024-05-06 08:26:19 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19696/2/indexcodes.txt 19696 2 2 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105963 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105963 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/105963 archive 353 disk0/00/01/96/96 2024-05-06 08:18:19 2024-05-06 08:18:19 2024-05-06 08:18:19 article show Bossy T. 9374 Gasser T. 2136 0000-0003-4882-2647 Lecocq F. Bednar J. 2162 Tanaka K. Ciais P. Least-cost and 2 °C-compliant mitigation pathways robust to physical uncertainty, economic paradigms, and intergenerational cost distribution pub ASA EM ECE IACC Each run of an integrated assessment models produces a single mitigation pathway consistent with stated objectives (e.g. maximum temperature) and optimizing some objective function (e.g. minimizing total discounted costs of mitigation). Even though models can be run thousands of times, it is unclear how built-in assumptions constrain the final set of pathways. Here we aim at broadly exploring the space of possible mitigation scenarios for a given mitigation target, and at characterizing the sets of pathways that are (near-)optimal, taking uncertainties into account. We produce an extensive set of CO2 emission pathways that stay below 2 °C of warming using a reduced-form climate-carbon model with a 1000 different physical states. We then identify 18 sets of quasi 'least-cost' mitigation pathways, under six assumptions about cost functions and three different cost minimization functions embarking different visions of intergenerational cost distribution. A first key outcome is that the absence or presence of inertia in the cost function plays a pivotal role in the resulting set of least-cost pathways. Second, despite inherent structural differences, we find common pathways across the 18 combinations in 96% of the physical states studied. Interpreting these common pathways as robust economically and in terms of intergenerational distribution, we shed light on some of their characteristics, even though these robust pathways differ for each physical state. 2024-04-02 published doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad34a8 3225 2885 2946 public Environmental Research: Climate 3 2 e025005 TRUE 2752-5295 Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829) Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003536/EU//ESM2025; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820829/EU//CONSTRAIN info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess