African food system and biodiversity mainly affected by urbanization via dietary shifts

19760 9 106322 2 322821 document 106322 s41893-024-01362-2.pdf application/pdf 9fe96fad5916ea2907f75ac8eb69cbf0 MD5 1979442 2024-05-31 09:34:44 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19760/1/s41893-024-01362-2.pdf 19760 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106322 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106322 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106322 archive 2 disk0/00/01/97/60 2024-05-31 09:38:00 2025-03-12 05:01:04 2024-05-31 09:38:00 article show De Vos K. 9463 0000-0002-4607-7877 Janssens C. 9177 Jacobs L. Campforts B. Boere E. 2082 Kozicka M. 2327 0000-0002-2323-3689 Leclère D. 2000 0000-0002-8658-1509 Havlík P. 1868 0000-0001-5551-5085 Hemerijckx L.-M. Van Rompaey A. Maertens M. Govers G. African food system and biodiversity mainly affected by urbanization via dietary shifts pub BNR IBF The rapid urbanization in Africa profoundly affects local food and ecological systems. According to earlier research, urbanization may cause food production and biodiversity losses as agricultural or natural lands are absorbed by expanding cities. Land-use displacement effects may buffer agricultural production losses or may lead to additional biodiversity losses but are often overlooked. Moreover, impacts of dietary changes associated with urbanization are rarely considered. To address this, we combined spatially explicit projections of African urban area expansion with observed rice consumption shifts to inform a partial equilibrium model (the Global Biosphere Management Model). We demonstrate the importance of displacement effects to identify potential food production or biodiversity issues until 2050 and argue for their integration in land-use planning and policymaking across spatial scales. We identify that because of agricultural displacement, the impact of urban area expansion on food production losses is probably limited (<1%)—at the cost of additional losses of natural lands by 2050 (up to 2 Mt). We also show that considering dietary shifts associated with urbanization increases rice consumption, production (+8.0%), trade (up to +2 Mt of required import) and agricultural methane emissions (up to +12 MtCO2-equivalent yr–1), thereby underscoring the need for a systems approach in future sustainability studies. 2024-05-30 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41893-024-01362-2 3407 3103 34 3307 174 119 public Nature Sustainability 7 869-878 TRUE 2398-9629 info:eu-repo/semantics/article