Physical inconsistencies in the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus in simple climate models

19814 7 106586 2 323439 document 106586 s43247-024-01464-x.pdf application/pdf 8c7c91e01fe83c0a099d2eb152f50d23 MD5 1149518 2024-06-17 07:40:05 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19814/1/s43247-024-01464-x.pdf 19814 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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published 106588 1 323452 document 106588 indexcodes.txt text/x-asm e9998eb159afde3655decb12344f0fed MD5 12869 2024-06-17 07:49:52 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19814/2/indexcodes.txt 19814 2 2 text/x-asm other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106586 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106586 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106586 archive 353 disk0/00/01/98/14 2024-06-17 07:42:45 2024-09-09 12:38:04 2024-06-17 07:42:45 article show Séférian R. Bossy T. 9374 Gasser T. 2136 0000-0003-4882-2647 Nicholls Z. 2343 0000-0002-4767-2723 Dorheim K. Su X. Tsutsui J. Santana-Falcón Y. Physical inconsistencies in the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus in simple climate models pub ASA EM ECE IACC The Ocean Heat-Carbon Nexus, linking ocean heat and carbon uptake, is crucial for understanding climate responses to cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and to net zero CO2 emissions. It results from a suite of processes involving the exchange of heat and carbon across the sea-air interface as well as their storage below the mixed layer and redistribution by the ocean large-scale circulation. The Ocean Heat and Carbon Nexus is assumed to be consistently represented across two modelling platforms used in the latest IPCC assessments: the Earth System Models (ESMs) and the Simple Climate Models (SCMs). However, our research shows significant deficiencies in state-of-the-art SCMs in replicating the ocean heat-carbon nexus of ESMs due to a crude treatment of the ocean thermal and carbon cycle coupling. With one SCM, we show that a more realistic heat-to-carbon uptake ratio exacerbates the projected warming by 0.1 °C in low overshoot scenarios and up to 0.2 °C in high overshoot scenarios. It is therefore critical to explore how SCMs’ physical inconsistencies, such as the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus, can affect future warming projections used in climate assessments, not just by SCMs in Working Group 3 but also by ESMs in Working Group 1 via SCM-driven emission-to-concentration translation. 2024-06-01 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01464-x 3225 2885 3377 public Communications Earth & Environment 5 1 e591 TRUE 2662-4435 Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003536/EU//ESM2025 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess