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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106706 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106706 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106706 106711 2 323705 document 106711 small.jpg image/png 70b363b4fd747fe838d0ffe30142a9b1 MD5 1839 2024-06-25 12:05:39 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19834/6/small.jpg 19834 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106706 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106706 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106706 archive 353 disk0/00/01/98/34 2024-06-25 11:56:33 2024-09-09 12:43:10 2024-06-25 11:56:33 article show Li K. Gao L. Guo Z. Dong Y. Moallemi E.A. Kou G. Chen M. Lin W. Liu Q. Obersteiner M. 7255 0000-0001-6981-2769 Pedercini M. Bryan B.A. pub ASA EM China's long-term sustainability faces socioeconomic and environmental uncertainties. We identify five key systemic risk drivers, called disruptors, which could push China into a polycrisis: pandemic disease, ageing and shrinking population, deglobalization, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Using an integrated simulation model, we quantify the effects of these disruptors on the country's long-term sustainability framed by 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Here we show that ageing and shrinking population, and climate change would be the two most influential disruptors on China's long-term sustainability. The compound effects of all disruptors could result in up to 2.1 and 7.0 points decline in the China's SDG score by 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline with no disruptors and no additional sustainability policies. However, an integrated policy portfolio involving investment in education, healthcare, energy transition, water-use efficiency, ecological conservation and restoration could promote resilience against the compound effects and significantly improve China's long-term sustainability. 2024-06-24 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41467-024-49725-9 219 public Nature Communications 15 1 TRUE 2041-1723 no info:eu-repo/semantics/article