Detecting climate milestones on the path to climate stabilization

19879 8 106954 2 324249 document 106954 MacDougall_2024_Environ._Res._Lett._19_074065.pdf application/pdf b85c6cd7e7ddc5d1e404372f4d457b4a MD5 1421181 2024-07-12 13:38:08 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19879/1/MacDougall_2024_Environ._Res._Lett._19_074065.pdf 19879 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

MacDougall_2024_Environ._Res._Lett._19_074065.pdf

published 106955 1 324255 document 106955 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 831d9ab89f71aad03009bf4e372772df MD5 11555 2024-07-12 13:47:01 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19879/2/indexcodes.txt 19879 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106954 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106954 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106954 archive 2 disk0/00/01/98/79 2024-07-12 13:39:46 2024-09-09 12:40:42 2024-07-12 13:39:46 article show MacDougall A.H. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Jones C.D. Liddicoat S.K. Grassi G. Detecting climate milestones on the path to climate stabilization pub ECE IACC TISS The era of anthropogenic climate change can be described by defined climate milestones. These milestones mark changes in the historic trajectory of change, and include peak greenhouse gas emissions, peak greenhouse gas concentration, deceleration of warming, net-zero emissions, and a transition to global cooling. However, given internal variability in the Earth system and measurement uncertainty, definitively saying that a milestone has passed requires rigour. Here CMIP6 simulations of peak-and-decline scenarios are used to examine the time needed to robustly detect three climate milestones: (1) the slowdown of global warming; (2) the end of global surface temperature increase; and (3) peak concentration of CO2. It is estimated that it will take 40 to 60 years after a simulated slowdown in warming rate, to robustly detect ( change) the signal in the global average temperature record. Detecting when warming has stopped will also be difficult and it takes until the mid 22nd century to have enough data to conclude warming has stopped. Detecting that CO2 concentration has peaked is far easier and a drop in CO2 concentration of 3 ppm is consistent with a greater than 99% chance that CO2 has peaked in all scenarios examined. Thus it is likely that as the rate of CO2 emissions is reduced, and net-zero emissions is approached, interpreting the global temperature record will become difficult—with a high potential to create confusion amongst policy makers and the general public. 2024-07-09 Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab1 254 public Environmental Research Letters 19 7 e074065 TRUE 1748-9326 Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003536/EU//ESM2025 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess