Evaluating the near- and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

19886 9 106990 2 324327 document 106990 s43247-024-01527-z.pdf application/pdf cf451acd5a61bf901ab4814eabe5b452 MD5 1299722 2024-07-15 12:14:16 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19886/1/s43247-024-01527-z.pdf 19886 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106990 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106990 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/106990 archive 353 disk0/00/01/98/86 2024-07-15 12:18:49 2025-06-04 05:00:37 2024-07-15 12:18:49 article show Ganti G. 9855 0000-0001-6638-4076 Gasser T. 2136 0000-0003-4882-2647 Bui M. Geden O. Lamb W. Minx J.C. Schleussner C.-F. 9915 0000-0001-8471-848X Gidden M. 2108 0000-0003-0687-414X Evaluating the near- and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives pub ASA EM ECE IACC ICI prog_ysp The 6th Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lacked sufficient land-sector scenario information to estimate total carbon dioxide removal deployment. Here, using a dataset of land-based carbon dioxide removal based on the scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we show that removals via afforestation and reforestation play a critical near-term role in mitigation, accounting for around 10% (median) of the net greenhouse gas emission reductions between 2020 and 2030 in scenarios that limit warming to 1.5 °C with limited overshoot. Novel carbon dioxide removal technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage scale to multi-gigatonne levels by 2050 and beyond to balance residual emissions and draw down warming. We show that reducing fossil fuel and deforestation emissions (gross emissions) accounts for over 80% of net greenhouse gas reductions until global net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) independent of climate objective stringency. We explore the regional distributions of gross emissions and total carbon dioxide removal in cost-effective mitigation pathways and highlight the importance of incorporating fairness and broader sustainability considerations in future assessments of mitigation pathways with carbon dioxide removal. 2024-07-15 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01527-z 3596 2885 3686 103 public Communications Earth & Environment 5 1 TRUE 2662-4435 GeoEngineering and NegatIve Emissions pathways in Europe (GENIE, H2020 951542) Response of the Earth System to overshoot, Climate neUtrality and negative Emissions (RESCUE, HE 101056939) Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE, H2020 101003687) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/951542/EU//GENIE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101056939//RESCUE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003687/EU//PROVIDE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess