Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

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published 107117 2 324644 document 107117 lightbox.jpg image/png 385326b8155d0d70b9f748f50a152ea3 MD5 61209 2024-08-01 10:56:52 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19912/2/lightbox.jpg 19912 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107116 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107116 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107116 archive 2 disk0/00/01/99/12 2024-08-01 10:52:23 2025-07-04 09:31:19 2024-08-01 10:52:23 article show Möller T. 2502 Högner A.E. 2546 0000-0002-4178-9664 Schleussner C.-F. 9915 0000-0001-8471-848X Bien S. Kitzmann N.H. Lamboll R.D. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Donges J.F. Rockström J. Wunderling N. Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks pub ECE IACC ICI TISS Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability. 2024-08-01 Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0 3734 3843 3686 254 public Nature Communications 15 1 e6192 TRUE 2041-1723 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8233417 data https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8233417 code Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE, H2020 101003687) Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene (ERA)Integrating non-linear biophysical and social determinantsof Earth-system stability for global sustainabilitythrough a novel community modelling platform (ERA, H2020 743080) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003687/EU//PROVIDE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/743080/EU//ERA info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess