Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107214 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107214 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107214 archive 2 disk0/00/01/99/30 2024-08-12 12:55:17 2024-10-07 12:07:06 2024-08-12 12:55:17 article show 1 Bertram C. Brutschin E. 2250 0000-0001-7040-3057 Drouet L. Luderer G. van Ruijven B. 92197 0000-0003-1232-5892 Aleluia Reis L. Baptista L.B. de Boer H.-S. Cui R. Daioglou V. Fosse F. Fragkiadakis D. Fricko O. 2004 0000-0002-6835-9883 Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Hultman N. Iyer G. Keramidas K. Krey V. 8099 0000-0003-0307-3515 Kriegler E. Lamboll R.D. Mandaroux R. Rochedo P. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Schaeffer R. Silva D. Tagomori I. van Vuuren D. Vrontisi Z. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints pub ECE IACC S3 TISS Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design. 2024-08-12 Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4 3271 3102 97 2881 166 254 250 public Nature Climate Change 14 954-960 TRUE 1758-678X https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11562539 data Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821471/EU//ENGAGE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess