Overshooting global warming and overshooting fertility decline. Beyond the smooth stabilization paradigm

19939 6 107238 2 324937 document 107238 Lutz_Overshooting global warming.pdf application/pdf dd0ac7806b4b9a2c0399c263cdd39d2f MD5 497820 2024-08-14 08:14:50 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19939/1/Lutz_Overshooting%20global%20warming.pdf 19939 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Lutz_Overshooting global warming.pdf

published 107239 1 324941 document 107239 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ dcb0a812391a005406785aa6127f0a96 MD5 7979 2024-08-14 08:15:43 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19939/2/indexcodes.txt 19939 2 2 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107238 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107238 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107238 archive 2 disk0/00/01/99/39 2024-08-14 08:15:14 2025-10-01 13:14:28 2024-08-14 08:15:14 article show Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 Overshooting global warming and overshooting fertility decline. Beyond the smooth stabilization paradigm pub POPJUS SHAW H2A Climate change; Fertility decline; Stabilization; Overshooting; Mitigation; Adaptation Our thinking about future trends in both population and climate change has traditionally been dominated by the view of smooth trajectories towards ultimate stabilization. But reality turns out to be different: climate warming will not stop at the Paris goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, but is expected to overshoot, and will therefore need to be addressed through negative emissions (taking carbon out of the atmosphere) later in the century; similarly, fertility decline has not stopped at the replacement level, and instead seems to be falling to lower and lower levels, with nobody knowing when it will stop and whether there will be an upturn. In both cases, societies will need to adapt to rather extreme discontinuities, rather than being able to count on smooth stabilization. Furthermore, the reality that climate change overshooting will require serious mitigative action during the second half of this century brings alternative demographic trends back into the picture as potentially relevant factors in mitigation, since alternative fertility and education trends in the near future will take decades to be reflected in changing population sizes and structures, including in human capital. 2024 doi:10.1553/p-35m2-3ce3 190 public Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 22 1-8 TRUE 17284414 info:eu-repo/semantics/article