19959 7 107331 2 325154 document 107331 Geophysical Research Letters - 2024 - Zhao - Frequency Bias Causes Overestimation of Climate Change Impacts on Global Flood.pdf application/pdf 802ac29b6b8c7ba774737c8b20f8ba0f MD5 2033560 2024-08-26 06:54:32 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19959/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202024%20-%20Zhao%20-%20Frequency%20Bias%20Causes%20Overestimation%20of%20Climate%20Change%20Impacts%20on%20Global%20Flood.pdf 19959 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

Geophysical Research Letters - 2024 - Zhao - Frequency Bias Causes Overestimation of Climate Change Impacts on Global Flood.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107331 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107331 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107331 archive 353 disk0/00/01/99/59 2024-08-26 06:55:53 2024-09-09 13:00:17 2024-08-26 06:55:53 article show Zhao F. 9300 Lange S. Goswami B. Frieler K. pub BNR WAT The frequency change of 100-year flood events is often determined by fitting extreme value distributions to annual maximum discharge from a historical base period. This study demonstrates that this approach may significantly bias the computed flood frequency change. An idealized experiment shows frequency bias exceeding 100% for a 50-year base period. Further analyses using Monte Carlo simulations, mathematical derivations, and hydrological model outputs reveal that bias magnitude inversely relates to base period length and is weakly influenced by the generalized extreme value distribution's shape parameter. The bias, persisting across different estimation methods, implies floods may exceed local defenses designed based on short historical records more often than expected, even without climate change. We introduce a frequency bias adjustment method, which significantly reduces the projected rise in global flood occurrence. This suggests a substantial part of the earlier projected increase in flood occurrence and impacts is not attributable to climate change. 2024-08-28 published American Geophysical Union doi:10.1029/2024GL108855 3211 public Geophysical Research Letters 51 16 e2024GL108855 TRUE 1944-8007 no info:eu-repo/semantics/article