High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble

19993 6 107486 2 325966 document 107486 s41467-024-52437-9.pdf application/pdf 4473dc7d5a2e2ab4b6106e478f5bbf55 MD5 954715 2024-09-19 12:24:05 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19993/1/s41467-024-52437-9.pdf 19993 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

s41467-024-52437-9.pdf

published 107487 1 325972 document 107487 indexcodes.txt text/x-asm 616cdbbfc5ab33bd53a8cbf8827f8449 MD5 12174 2024-09-19 12:34:15 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/19993/2/indexcodes.txt 19993 2 2 text/x-asm other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107486 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107486 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107486 archive 353 disk0/00/01/99/93 2024-09-19 12:25:13 2024-09-19 12:25:13 2024-09-19 12:25:13 article show Sarofim M.C. Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Malek P. McDuffie E.E. Hartin C.A. Lay C.R. McGrath S. High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble pub ECE IACC Unmapped bibliographic data: JO - Nature Communications [Field not mapped to EPrints] Developing future climate projections begins with choosing future emissions scenarios. While scenarios are often based on storylines, here instead we produce a probabilistic multi-million-member ensemble of radiative forcing trajectories to assess the relevance of future forcing thresholds. We coupled a probabilistic database of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios with a probabilistically calibrated reduced complexity climate model. In 2100, we project median forcings of 5.1 watt per square meters (5th to 95th percentiles of 3.3 to 7.1), with roughly 0.5% probability of exceeding 8.5 watt per square meters, and a 1% probability of being lower than 2.6 watt per square meters. Although the probability of 8.5 watt per square meters scenarios is low, our results support their continued utility for calibrating damage functions, characterizing climate in the 22nd century (the probability of exceeding 8.5 watt per square meters increases to about 7% by 2150), and assessing low-probability/high-impact futures. 2024-09-18 published NPG 10.1038/s41467-024-52437-9 3162 public Nature Communications 15 1 8185 TRUE 2041-1723 no info:eu-repo/semantics/article