Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

20009 13 107651 2 326399 document 107651 Rouhette_2024_ERL_Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling.pdf application/pdf aaf61178cbd3c0c7959078a478a4adac MD5 1435133 2024-10-08 12:08:11 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20009/1/Rouhette_2024_ERL_Limits%20to%20forests-based%20mitigation%20in%20integrated%20assessment%20modelling.pdf 20009 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Rouhette_2024_ERL_Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107651 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107651 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107651 archive 2 disk0/00/02/00/09 2024-09-30 08:51:06 2024-10-08 12:08:11 2024-09-30 08:51:06 article show Rouhette T. Escobar Lanzuela N. 2296 0000-0001-7644-8790 Zhao X. Sanz M.J. van de Ven D.J. Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors pub BNR IBF afforestation, AFOLU, climate change mitigation, deforestation, IAM, land-based mitigation, Paris Agreement Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO2.yr−1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO2.yr−1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO2.yr−1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO2.yr−1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement. 2024-09-24 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad7748 3201 public Environmental Research Letters 19 11 e114017 TRUE 1748-9326 Assessing Sectoral Perspectives on Climate Transitions to support the Global Stocktake and subsequent NDCs (NDC ASPECTS, H2020 101003866 ) Creating leverage to enhance biodiversity outcomes of global biomass trade (CLEVER, H2020 101060765) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003866/EU//NDC ASPECTS; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101060765/EU//CLEVER info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess