Overconfidence in climate overshoot

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107677 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107677 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/107677 archive 353 disk0/00/02/00/44 2024-10-10 08:16:04 2025-06-04 05:00:37 2024-10-10 08:16:04 article show Schleussner C.-F. 9915 0000-0001-8471-848X Ganti G. 9855 0000-0001-6638-4076 Lejeune Q. Zhu B. 2453 0000-0001-9360-6797 Pfleiderer P. Prutz R. 9514 Ciais P. Frölicher T.L. Fuss S. Gasser T. 2136 0000-0003-4882-2647 Gidden M. 2108 0000-0003-0687-414X Kropf C.M. Lacroix F. Lamboll R. Martyr R. Maussion F. McCaughey J.W. Meinshausen M. Mengel M. Nicholls Z. 2343 0000-0002-4767-2723 Quilcaille Y. Sanderson B. Seneviratne S.I. Sillmann J. Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Steinert N.J. Theokritoff E. Warren R. Price J. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Overconfidence in climate overshoot pub ASA EM BNR IBF ECE IACC ICI TISS Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2,3,4,5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks. 2024-10-09 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9 3686 3596 3694 3807 2885 103 3377 3162 254 public Nature 634 8033 366-373 TRUE 0028-0836 Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE, H2020 101003687) Permafrost thaw and the changing arctic coast: science for socio-economic adaptation (Nunataryuk, H2020 773421) Response of the Earth System to overshoot, Climate neUtrality and negative Emissions (RESCUE, HE 101056939) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003687/EU//PROVIDE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/773421/EU//Nunataryuk; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101056939//RESCUE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess