Future Scenarios for River Exports of Multiple Pollutants by Sources and Sub‐Basins Worldwide: Rising Pollution for the Indian Ocean

20146 7 108199 2 327784 document 108199 Earth s Future - 2024 - Micella - Future Scenarios for River Exports of Multiple Pollutants by Sources and Sub‐Basins.pdf application/pdf d780605343532b60b1acc755f9eb382c MD5 3529486 2024-11-27 07:23:39 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20146/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202024%20-%20Micella%20-%20Future%20Scenarios%20for%20River%20Exports%20of%20Multiple%20Pollutants%20by%20Sources%20and%20Sub%E2%80%90Basins.pdf 20146 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

Earth s Future - 2024 - Micella - Future Scenarios for River Exports of Multiple Pollutants by Sources and Sub‐Basins.pdf

published 108200 1 327791 document 108200 indexcodes.txt text/x-c++ 81aa2180eb6d83f656b2f6e0db915df5 MD5 17808 2024-11-27 07:33:23 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20146/2/indexcodes.txt 20146 2 2 text/x-c++ other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108199 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108199 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108199 archive 353 disk0/00/02/01/46 2024-11-27 07:29:06 2024-11-27 07:29:06 2024-11-27 07:29:06 article show Micella I. Kroeze C. Bak M.P. Tang T. 2176 0000-0002-2867-9241 Wada Y. 8940 0000-0003-4770-2539 Strokal M. Future Scenarios for River Exports of Multiple Pollutants by Sources and Sub‐Basins Worldwide: Rising Pollution for the Indian Ocean pub BNR WAT In the future, rivers may export more pollutants to coastal waters, driven by socio-economic development, increased material consumption, and climate change. However, existing scenarios often ignore multi-pollutant problems. Here, we aim to explore future trends in annual river exports of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), plastics (macro and micro), and emerging contaminants (triclosan and diclofenac) at the sub-basin scale worldwide. For this, we implement into the process-based MARINA-Multi model (Model to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to the seAs) two new multi-pollutant scenarios: “Sustainability-driven Future” (SD) and “Economy-driven Future” (ED). In ED, river exports of nutrients and microplastics will double by 2100, globally. In SD, a decrease of up to 83% is projected for river export of all studied pollutants by 2100, globally. Diffuse sources such as fertilizers are largely responsible for increasing nutrient pollution in the two scenarios. Point sources, namely sewage systems, are largely responsible for increasing microplastic pollution in the ED scenario. In both scenarios, the coastal waters of the Indian Ocean will receive up to 400% more pollutants from rivers by 2100 because of growing population, urbanization, and poor waste management in the African and Asian sub-basins. The situation differs for sub-basins draining into the Mediterranean Sea and the Pacific Ocean (mainly less future pollution) and the Atlantic Ocean and Arctic Ocean (more or less future pollution depending on sub-basins and scenarios). From 56% to 78% of the global population are expected to live in more polluted river basins in the future, challenging sustainable development goals for clean waters. 2024-11-22 published Wiley & Sons, Inc. doi:10.1029/2024EF004712 3086 2601 public Earth's Future 12 11 e2024EF004712 TRUE 23284277 Inventive forecasting tools for adapting water quality management to a new climate (inventWater, H2020 956623) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/956623/EU// info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess