Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations

20150 7 108217 2 327829 document 108217 kornhuber-et-al-2024-global-emergence-of-regional-heatwave-hotspots-outpaces-climate-model-simulations.pdf application/pdf 594b6d7766c899af77f163d1e953fde1 MD5 16734098 2024-11-28 09:10:38 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20150/1/kornhuber-et-al-2024-global-emergence-of-regional-heatwave-hotspots-outpaces-climate-model-simulations.pdf 20150 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108217 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108217 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108217 archive 353 disk0/00/02/01/50 2024-11-28 09:13:08 2025-08-27 05:00:23 2024-11-28 09:13:08 article show Kornhuber K. 2521 0000-0001-5466-2059 Bartusek S. Seager R. Schellnhuber H.J. 2489 0000-0001-7453-4935 Ting M. Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations pub ECE ICI prog_dir climate change; extreme weather; heatwaves Multiple recent record-shattering weather events raise questions about the adequacy of climate models to effectively predict and prepare for unprecedented climate impacts on human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Here, we show that extreme heat in several regions globally is increasing significantly and faster in magnitude than what state-of-the-art climate models have predicted under present warming even after accounting for their regional summer background warming. Across all global land area, models underestimate positive trends exceeding 0.5 °C per decade in widening of the upper tail of extreme surface temperature distributions by a factor of four compared to reanalysis data and exhibit a lower fraction of significantly increasing trends overall. To a lesser degree, models also underestimate observed strong trends of contraction of the upper tails in some areas, while moderate trends are well reproduced in a global perspective. Our results highlight the need to better understand and model the drivers of extreme heat and to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to avoid further harm from unexpected weather events. 2024-11-26 published National Academy of Sciences doi:10.1073/pnas.2411258121 3792 3723 public Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121 49 e2411258121 TRUE 1091-6490 info:eu-repo/semantics/article