Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory

20162 7 108279 2 327969 document 108279 s41467-024-54846-2.pdf application/pdf 26795b1c4767096fbc4671dfd3e03ef9 MD5 4691587 2024-12-03 09:59:33 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20162/1/s41467-024-54846-2.pdf 20162 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

s41467-024-54846-2.pdf

published 108281 2 327983 document 108281 lightbox.jpg image/png 42922061a78ee417e08d89868a4f5d7a MD5 61216 2024-12-03 10:09:35 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20162/2/lightbox.jpg 20162 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108279 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108279 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108279 archive 353 disk0/00/02/01/62 2024-12-03 10:02:41 2024-12-03 10:02:41 2024-12-03 10:02:41 article show He Y. 9824 Piao S. Ciais P. Xu H. Gasser T. 2136 0000-0003-4882-2647 Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory pub ASA EM ECE IACC China's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 relies on the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, with forestation targets designed to enhance carbon removal. However, the exact sequestration potential of these initiatives remains uncertain due to differing accounting conventions between national inventories and scientific assessments. Here, we reconcile both estimates and reassess LULUCF carbon fluxes up to 2100, using a spatially explicit bookkeeping model, state-of-the-art historical data, and national forestation targets. We simulate a carbon sink of -0.24 ± 0.03 Gt C yr-1 over 1994-2018 from past forestation efforts, aligned well with the national inventory. Should the official forestation targets be followed and extended, this could reach -0.35 ± 0.04 Gt C yr-1 in 2060, offsetting 43 ± 4% of anticipated residual fossil CO2 emissions. Our findings confirm the key role of LULUCF in carbon sequestration, but its potential will decline if forestation efforts cease, highlighting the necessity for emission reductions in other sectors to achieve carbon neutrality. 2024-11-30 NPG doi:10.1038/s41467-024-54846-2 3607 2885 public Nature Communications 15 1 e10426 TRUE 2041-1723 Response of the Earth System to overshoot, Climate neUtrality and negative Emissions (RESCUE, HE 101056939) Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101056939//RESCUE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003536/EU//ESM2025 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess