Opinion dynamics meet agent-based climate economics: An integrated analysis of carbon taxation

20183 5 108369 2 328202 document 108369 1-s2.0-S016726812400430X-main.pdf application/pdf 4da5b1d5b00a2ce440da6190ff600870 MD5 2214894 2024-12-13 08:51:56 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20183/1/1-s2.0-S016726812400430X-main.pdf 20183 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108369 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108369 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108369 archive 353 disk0/00/02/01/83 2024-12-13 08:53:31 2024-12-13 08:53:31 2024-12-13 08:53:31 article show Lackner T. Fierro L. 9839 0000-0002-4378-1375 Mellacher P. Opinion dynamics meet agent-based climate economics: An integrated analysis of carbon taxation pub ASA EM Agent-based models; Climate change; Mitigation policy; Opinion dynamics; Transition risks We introduce an integrated approach, blending Opinion Dynamics with a Macroeconomic Agent-Based Model (OD-MABM) to explore the co-evolution of climate change mitigation policy and public support. The OD-MABM links a novel opinion dynamics model that is calibrated for European countries using survey data to the Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes model (DSK). Opinion dynamics regarding climate policy arise from complex interactions among social, political, economic and climate systems where a household's opinion is affected by individual economic conditions, perception of climate change, industry-led (dis-)information and social influence. We examine 133 policy pathways in the EU, integrating various carbon tax schemes and revenue recycling mechanisms. Our findings reveal that effective carbon tax policies initially lead to a decline in public support due to substantial macroeconomic transition costs, threatening political feasibility. However, they also pave the way for a positive social tipping point in the future. This shift stems from the evolving economic and political influence associated with the fossil fuel-based industry, which gradually diminishes as the transition unfolds. Second, hybrid revenue recycling strategies that combine green subsidies with climate dividends successfully address this intertemporal trade-off in our model by accelerating the transition and mitigating its economic fallout, thus broadening public support. 2025-01 published Elsevier doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106816 3594 public Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 229 e106816 TRUE 0167-2681 info:eu-repo/semantics/article