Mapping current and future European potential vegetation to support restoration planning

20199 7 108430 2 328355 document 108430 jung2024_mergedmanuscriptsia (1).pdf application/pdf f62c40f7de95913b83d935122b0c2b02 MD5 1815874 2024-12-17 08:52:33 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20199/1/jung2024_mergedmanuscriptsia%20%281%29.pdf 20199 1 1 application/pdf text en public

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submitted 108432 2 328368 document 108432 lightbox.jpg image/png 419ff0725454993dfdfee95fd2e332c7 MD5 14585 2024-12-17 09:02:38 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20199/2/lightbox.jpg 20199 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108430 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108430 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/108430 archive 353 disk0/00/02/01/99 2024-12-17 08:54:07 2025-03-12 05:00:56 2024-12-17 08:54:07 article show 2 Jung M. 2245 0000-0002-7569-1390 Mapping current and future European potential vegetation to support restoration planning submitted BNR BEC The extent and intactness of natural ecosystems is a key factor enabling species populations to thrive. However, the distribution of ecosystems is changing owing to both climatic and anthropogenic factors. Recently negotiated European policy directives, such as the Nature Restoration Law, argue for the restoration of natural ecosystems. Yet to determine what is to be restored the range of possible outcomes should be first explored, also with regards to future climatic conditions. Here the concept of potential natural vegetation (PNV) is applied and mapped in a data-driven manner at European extent, exploring where PNV transitions are most likely to happen under contemporary and future conditions. Specifically, I predict the distribution of current and future potential coverage of six natural vegetation types at 1 km² grain using Bayesian machine learning approaches. I find that most current land cover and land use could develop to no single, but multiple PNV states, although options for some types, such as areas suitable for wetlands might become rarer under future climatic conditions. Furthermore, the challenge of transitioning to PNV was found to be particularly high for current intensively cultivated landscapes. Overall data-driven PNV mapping holds considerable promise for assessing land potentials and supporting restoration assessments. Future work should expand the thematic grain of vegetation maps and consider feedback with biotic factors. 2024-09 published doi:10.31223/X59H71 3143 public Earth ArXiv FALSE Mapping current and future European potential vegetation to support restoration planning NaturaConnect - Designing a resilient and coherent Trans-European Network for Nature and People (NaturaConnect, HE 101060429) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101060429/EU//NaturaConnect info:eu-repo/semantics/article