We assess the potential impact of international migration on population ageing in Asian countries by estimating replacement migration for the period 2022-2050.

This open data deposit contains the code (R-scripts) and the datasets (csv-files) for the replacement migration scenarios and a zero-migration scenario:



Constant chronological old-age dependency ratio (Constant OADR scenario)

Constant prospective old-age dependency ratio (Constant POADR scenario)

Constant chronological working-age population (Constant WA scenario)

Constant prospective working-age population (Constant PWA scenario)

Zero-migration (ZM scenario)


Countries included in the analysis: Armenia, China, Georgia, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, North Korea, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand.

Please note that for Armenia and Hong Kong (2023) and Georgia (2024) later baseline years are applied due to the UN country-specific assumptions on post-Covid-19 mortality.

 

For detailed information about the scenarios and parameters:

Dörflinger, M., Potancokova, M., Marois, G. (2024): The potential impact of international migration on prospective population ageing in Asian countries. Asian Population Studies. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441730.2024.2436201

 

All underlying data (UN World Population Prospects 2022) are openly available at:

https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Archive

 

Code

1_Data.R: 



Load and merge data from UN World Population Prospects 2022

Define sample

Prepare data (prospective old-age thresholds, model sex and age pattern of migrants)


2_Scenarios.R:



Replacement migration scenarios: 



Constant chronological old-age dependency

Constant prospective old-age dependency

Constant chronological working-age population

Constant prospective working-age population



Zero-migration scenario


3_Robustness_checks.R:



Run replacement migrations scenarios with different model sex and age patterns for net migration


Program version used: RStudio "Chocolate Cosmos" (e4392fc9, 2024-06-05). Files may not be compatible with other versions.

 

Datasets

The datasets contain the key information on population size, the relevant indicators (OADR, POADR, WA, PWA) and replacement migration volumes and rates by country and year. Please see readme_datasets.txt for detailed information. 

 

Acknowledgements

Part of the research was developed in the Young Scientists Summer Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria) with financial support from the German National Member Organization.