Endogenizing long-term material and energy demand in response to power capacity changes by model soft-linking: application to Japan

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113487 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113487 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/113487 archive 353 disk0/00/02/04/14 2025-02-20 07:18:08 2026-04-10 08:07:11 2025-02-20 07:18:08 article show Ju Y. 2494 0000-0003-4483-0332 Cao T. Firdaus N. Li B. Endogenizing long-term material and energy demand in response to power capacity changes by model soft-linking: application to Japan pub ECE S3 Decarbonization transition, Endogenous material demand, Integrated Assessment Model, Life Cycle Assessment, Soft-linking Japan's decarbonization transition towards carbon neutrality by 2050 will be more dependent on the long-term development of renewables. However, the renewable power generation technologies themselves are highly material- and energy-intensive. We estimated such materials and energy demands in response to power capacity changes. Our main results show that: (1) achieving a 100% reduction of GHG emissions requires enormous and urgent investment during 2020-2030; (2) the largest gap of material demands would show in 2020-2030, especially for cement-related products, petrochemical products, cables, wood products, and steel products, but with different degrees of dispersion; (3) the largest gap of industrial energy demands would show later in 2030-2040 as a result of early investment (inter-period iterations). Increasing material efficiency and benefiting more and earlier from the increasingly low-carbon energy supply would be the key to Japan's industrial decarbonization. 2025-02-12 published Springer doi:10.1007/s12667-025-00724-9 3729 public Energy Systems TRUE 1868-3975 Energy Demand Changes Induced by Technological and Social Innovations (EDITS) no info:eu-repo/semantics/article