Fair carbon removal obligations under climate response uncertainty

20464 9 109252 2 331263 document 109252 Fair-carbon-removal-obligations-under-climate-response-uncertainty.pdf application/pdf 93734cb0a32e584544bc34ee7a6ff7bc MD5 1385954 2025-03-24 10:46:42 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20464/1/Fair-carbon-removal-obligations-under-climate-response-uncertainty.pdf 20464 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Fair-carbon-removal-obligations-under-climate-response-uncertainty.pdf

published 109253 1 331270 document 109253 indexcodes.txt text/plain 5c1beff4ed05b0b883fb5345a1d3d956 MD5 14881 2025-03-24 10:55:34 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20464/2/indexcodes.txt 20464 2 2 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109252 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109252 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109252 archive 2 disk0/00/02/04/64 2025-03-24 10:51:44 2025-06-04 05:00:37 2025-03-24 10:51:44 article show Ganti G. 9855 0000-0001-6638-4076 Pelz S. 9327 0000-0002-3528-8679 Klönne U. Gidden M.J. 2108 0000-0003-0687-414X Schleussner C.F. 9915 0000-0001-8471-848X Nicholls Z. 2343 0000-0002-4767-2723 Fair carbon removal obligations under climate response uncertainty inpress ECE IACC ICI TISS Deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is considered unavoidable to meet global climate goals. However, current assessments of the potential role of CDR tend to overlook uncertainty in the Earth System response to our emissions. Here, we assess the level of ‘preventive’ CDR needed to draw warming down to 1.5°C in case of a stronger-than-median Earth System response. Using the ‘1.5°C with no or limited overshoot’ ensemble of pathways assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we estimate that around 323–787 Gt CO2 (interquartile range) of additional CDR (beyond the 418–763 Gt CO2 (interquartile range) already deployed in these pathways) may be required after net zero CO2 for a very likely (> = 90%) chance of reaching 1.5°C in 2100. We cannot know now whether a net zero society will need to utilize the preventive capacity, but the option must be available to them. Feasibility and sustainability concerns associated with large-scale CDR deployment raise fundamental questions over reducing potential future CDR reliance in light of Earth System uncertainty. Our analysis shows that reducing residual emissions from long-lived (e.g. CO2 and N2O) and short-lived climate forcers (e.g. CH4) can significantly reduce the scale of preventive CDR required. We also explore an illustrative approach to equitably allocate global preventive CDR needs. North America is allocated a per-capita removal responsibility of 13 t CO2/capita annually between 2020 and 2100 in a pathway with limited residual emission cuts, which is more than halved in another with deeper residual emission cuts. Our results underscore the importance of limiting so-called ‘hard-to-abate’ emissions in addition to rapid near-term cuts in emissions as preventive measures to avoid over-reliance on unsustainable levels of preventive CDR. 2025-03-20 doi:10.1080/14693062.2025.2481138 3596 3176 103 3686 3377 public Climate Policy 1-13 13 TRUE 1469-3062 GeoEngineering and NegatIve Emissions pathways in Europe (GENIE, H2020 951542) Enabling and Leveraging Climate Action Towards Netzero Emissions (ELEVATE, HE 101056873) Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreeinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/951542/EU//GENIE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101056873/EU//ELEVATE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003536/EU//ESM2025 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess