Impact of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 on the EU wood-based bioeconomy

20465 8 109258 2 331276 document 109258 1-s2.0-S0959378025000238-main.pdf application/pdf e8addd3aaef7cf8d91e0dac41e42e998 MD5 5552440 2025-03-25 07:58:11 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20465/1/1-s2.0-S0959378025000238-main.pdf 20465 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109258 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109258 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109258 archive 353 disk0/00/02/04/65 2025-03-25 08:03:20 2025-03-26 10:40:43 2025-03-25 08:03:20 article show Di Fulvio F. 8861 0000-0002-7317-6360 Snäll T. Lauri P. 1965 Forsell N. 1999 Mönkkönen M. Burgas D. Blattert C. Eyvindson K. Caicoya A.T. Vergarechea M. Antón-Fernández C. Klein J. Astrup R. Lukkarinen J. Pitzén S. Primmer E. Impact of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 on the EU wood-based bioeconomy pub BNR IBF Bioeconomy; Wood harvest; Protection; Biodiversity; Modelling; Forest sector; Leakage The EU Biodiversity Strategy (EUBDS) for 2030 aims to conserve and restore biodiversity by protecting large areas throughout the European Union. A target of the EUBDS is to protect 30 % of the EU's land area by 2030, with 10% being strictly protected (including all primary and old growth forests) and 20% being managed 'closer to nature'. Even though this will have a positive impact on biodiversity, it may negatively impact the EU's woodbased bioeconomy. In this study, we analyze how alternative interpretations and distributions of the EU's protection targets may affect future woody biomass harvest levels, exports of wood commodities, and the spatial distribution of managed areas under wood demands aligned with SSP2-RCP1.9. Using the model GLOBIOMForest, we simulate scenarios representing a variety of interpretations and geographic distributions of the EUBDS targets. The EUBDS targets would have a limited impact on EU harvest levels since the EU can still increase its wood harvest between 21 % and 24 % by 2100. With strict protection of 30 % of the area, the EU harvest level can still be increased by 10 %. Moreover, the most likely scenario (10 %/20 % protection within each MS) will result in increased net exports in the coming decades, but a slight decline after 2050. However, if protection is intended to also represent site productivity or to re-establish a green infrastructure, then EU net exports will also decline before 2050. With the decreased EU roundwood harvest, increased harvest will occur in other biomes and mostly leaking into boreal regions. 2025-07 published Elsevier doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102986 65 173 93 public Global Environmental Change 92 e102986 1 TRUE 1872-9495 ForestValue - Innovating forest-based bioeconomy (ForestValue, H2020 773324 ) The role of European forests in achieving climate neutrality by 2050 (ForestNavigator, HE 101056875) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/773324/EU//ForestValue; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101056875/EU//ForestNavigator info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess