Using net-zero carbon debt to track climate overshoot responsibility

20466 9 109260 2 331290 document 109260 pelz-et-al-2025-using-net-zero-carbon-debt-to-track-climate-overshoot-responsibility.pdf application/pdf a512a1184ee69876fdda01d0ea403e6f MD5 674843 2025-03-25 08:08:24 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20466/1/pelz-et-al-2025-using-net-zero-carbon-debt-to-track-climate-overshoot-responsibility.pdf 20466 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

pelz-et-al-2025-using-net-zero-carbon-debt-to-track-climate-overshoot-responsibility.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109260 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109260 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109260 archive 2 disk0/00/02/04/66 2025-03-25 08:08:40 2025-03-26 10:40:20 2025-03-25 08:08:40 article show Pelz S. 9327 0000-0002-3528-8679 Ganti G. 9855 0000-0001-6638-4076 Lamboll R. Grant L. Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Pachauri S. 1816 0000-0001-8138-3178 Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Thiery W. Gidden M.J. 2108 0000-0003-0687-414X Using net-zero carbon debt to track climate overshoot responsibility pub ECE IACC TISS Current emissions trends will likely deplete a 1.5 °C consistent carbon budget around the year 2030, resulting in at least a temporary exceedance, or overshoot. To clarify responsibilities for this budget exceedance, we consider “net-zero carbon debt,” a forward-looking measure of the extent to which a party is expected to breach its “fair share” of the remaining budget by the time it achieves net-zero carbon emissions. We apply this measure to all vetted mitigation scenarios assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report and two scenarios that model current policies and pledges, using an illustrative equal per capita allocation of a remaining 1.5 °C carbon budget starting in 1990. The resulting regional carbon debt estimates inform i) the scale and pace of regional carbon drawdown obligations necessary to address budget exceedance and ii) relative regional responsibilities for increased lifetime exposure to extreme heatwaves across age cohorts due to budget exceedance. Our work strengthens intergenerational equity considerations within an international climate equity discourse and informs the implementation of effort-sharing mechanisms that persist beyond the exhaustion of a rapidly dwindling remaining carbon budget. 2025-03-24 published doi:10.1073/pnas.2409316122 3176 3596 3162 222 254 250 103 public Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122 13 e2409316122 TRUE 0027-8424 GeoEngineering and NegatIve Emissions pathways in Europe (GENIE, H2020 951542) Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536) Enabling and Leveraging Climate Action Towards Netzero Emissions (ELEVATE, HE 101056873) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreeinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/951542/EU//GENIE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101056873/EU//ELEVATE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003536/EU//ESM2025 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess