Coal phase-out pledges follow peak coal: evidence from 60 years of growth and decline in coal power capacity worldwide

20488 7 109357 2 331766 document 109357 oiad009.pdf application/pdf 3da3f57e75e18964f4e77704f41e8ca0 MD5 3640129 2025-03-31 12:37:43 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20488/1/oiad009.pdf 20488 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

oiad009.pdf

published 109365 1 331794 document 109365 indexcodes.txt text/plain 132cce2c3b4ec647cfc22664254a532e MD5 14599 2025-03-31 12:47:42 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20488/2/indexcodes.txt 20488 2 2 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109357 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109357 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109357 archive 353 disk0/00/02/04/88 2025-03-31 12:39:29 2025-03-31 12:39:29 2025-03-31 12:39:29 article show Lægreid O.M. Cherp A. Jewell J. 8535 0000-0003-2846-9081 Coal phase-out pledges follow peak coal: evidence from 60 years of growth and decline in coal power capacity worldwide pub ASA CAT Transitioning to net-zero carbon emissions requires phasing-out unabated coal power; however, recently it has only been declining in some countries, while it stagnated or even increased in others. Where and under what circumstances, has coal capacity reached its peak and begun to decline? We address this question with an empirical analysis of coal capacity in 56 countries, accounting for 99% of coal generation in the world. The peaks in national coal power have been equally spread per decade since 1970. The peaks are more likely to occur in country-years with high levels of electoral democracy, higher GDP per capita, slower electricity demand growth, and with low levels of political corruption. Normally, peaking coal power preceded rather than followed political coal phase-out pledges, often with long time lags. We conclude that though the cost of coal alternatives are declining and concerns over climate change increasing, coal power does not automatically peak even in situations with low demand growth, aging power plants and high import dependence. A quick and decisive destabilization of coal regimes requires, in addition, having sufficient economic capacities and strong democratic governance. 2023-02-01 published Oxford University Press doi:10.1093/ooenergy/oiad009 136 public Oxford Open Energy 2 TRUE 2752-5082 MechANIsms and actors of Feasible Energy Transitions (MANIFEST, H2020 950408) Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/821471/EU//ENGAGE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/950408/EU//MANIFEST info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess