Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty

20499 7 109417 2 331900 document 109417 s43247-025-02208-1.pdf application/pdf 9ac32edf0b2f570e05c64521d2b16cc1 MD5 1096402 2025-04-03 07:35:38 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20499/1/s43247-025-02208-1.pdf 20499 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109417 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109417 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/109417 archive 353 disk0/00/02/04/99 2025-04-03 07:39:36 2025-04-03 07:39:36 2025-04-03 07:39:36 article show Chim M.M. Aubry T.J. Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Schmidt A. Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty pub ECE IACC Most climate projections represent volcanic eruptions as a prescribed constant forcing based on a historical average, which prevents a full quantification of uncertainties in climate projections. Here we show that the contribution of volcanic forcing uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature projections reaches up to 49% in 2029, and is comparable or greater than that from internal variability throughout the 21st century. Furthermore, compared to a constant volcanic forcing, employing a stochastic volcanic forcing reduces the probability of exceeding 1.5 °C warming above pre-industrial level by at least 5% for high climate mitigation scenario, and enhances the probability of negative decadal temperature trends by up to 8%. Intermediate to high climate mitigation scenarios are particularly sensitive to the choice of future volcanic forcing implementation. We recommend the use of either a stochastic approach or prescribed constant forcing levels that sample volcanic uncertainty in future climate simulations. 2025-03-25 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02208-1 3162 public Communications Earth & Environment 6 1 TRUE 2662-4435 Socioeconomic Pathways, Adaptation and Resilience to Changing CLimate in Europe (SPARCCLE, HE 101081369) TRANSPARENT ASSESSMENTS FOR REAL PEOPLE (WorldTrans, HE 101081661) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101081369/EU//SPARCCLE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101081661/EU//WorldTrans info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess