Integrated Modeling for Managing Catastrophic Risks: Vulnerability Analysis and Systemic Risks Management

20644 10 110814 2 335514 document 110814 P3_ISCRiMM_Vulnerability071024.pdf application/pdf 83b799b411655a4c9b7bb84d93de3159 MD5 412515 2025-08-19 09:12:50 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20644/1/P3_ISCRiMM_Vulnerability071024.pdf 20644 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

P3_ISCRiMM_Vulnerability071024.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110814 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110814 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110814 archive 353 disk0/00/02/06/44 2025-06-02 08:46:18 2025-10-06 07:34:33 2025-06-02 08:46:18 book_section show Komendantova N. 1880 0000-0003-2568-6179 Ermolieva T. 7638 Zobeidi T. 9962 Armas I. Toma-Danila D. Hürlimann M. Integrated Modeling for Managing Catastrophic Risks: Vulnerability Analysis and Systemic Risks Management pub ASA CAT Systemic risks, Integrated Catastrophe risk modeling and management model, ISCRiMM, two-stage STO, safety constraints, interdependent ex-ante precautionary and ex-post adaptive measures, vulnerability analysis, statistical and machine learning Catastrophic dependent systemic losses have analytically intractable multidimensional probability distributions dependent on exogenous shocks, interactions among goals and constraints of the involved actors and systems, activities of economic sectors, structural and environmental standards, critical infrastructure in place, feasible mitigation and adaptation structural and financial measures, investment potentials, etc. For the analysis of the systemic risks we argue for the design of proper Decision Support Systems (DSSs) and integrated catastrophe analysis and management modeling approaches similar to ISCRiMM model of IIASA. We discuss several important aspects and components of the ISCRiMM. This includes considerations of systemic risks, safety and security constraints, the necessity of robust ex-ante loss reduction and ex-post emergency response and BBB actions, structural and financial measures, the need for stochastic catastrophe models (scenario generators), and proper stochastic optimization solution procedures to enable the decision-support regarding coherent systemic ex-ante and ex-post preventing and coping solutions for dealing with catastrophes. The diversion of capital from ex-post measures to ex-ante investments into structural loss reduction measures can essentially reduce the dependencies among losses and, hence, decrease overall vulnerability, stabilize insurance mechanisms, reduce the demand for ex-post risk sharing and restoration efforts. One of the ISCRiMM submodels is Vulnerability assessment model. In the paper we discuss different methodologies and models for vulnerabilities analysis and modeling, and how they can be effectively integrated within ISCRiMM. In particular, vulnerability models can be based on AI, statistical and machine learning principles, which provide an effective means of incorporating them into ISCRiMM and designing optimal and robust interdependent ex-ate and ex-post measures decreasing vulnerabilities and increasing resilience and BBB capacities. 2025-07 published Wiley 161 83 3830 public TRUE 978-1-836-69027-6 Stochastic Modeling and Optimization Methods for Critical Infrastructure Protection: Stochastic modeling Gaivoronski A. Knopov P. Norkin V. Zaslavskyi V. Promoting disaster preparedness and resilience by co-developing stakeholder support tools for managing the systemic risk of compounding disasters (PARATUS, HE 101073954) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101073954/EU//PARATUS info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart