The warming effect of black carbon must be reassessed in light of observational constraints

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published 110327 2 334224 document 110327 lightbox.jpg image/png 68d57ab2b22725f176f482ffca566c1f MD5 26187 2025-07-02 12:44:06 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20729/2/lightbox.jpg 20729 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110321 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110321 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110321 archive 353 disk0/00/02/07/29 2025-07-02 12:36:09 2025-07-02 12:36:09 2025-07-02 12:36:09 article show Myhre G. Samset B.H. Stjern C.W. Hodnebrog Ø. Kramer R. Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Andrews T. Boucher O. Faluvegi G. Forster P.M. Iversen T. Kirkevåg A. Olivié D. Shindell D. Stier P. Watson-Parris D. The warming effect of black carbon must be reassessed in light of observational constraints pub ECE IACC black carbon, climate response, rapid adjustments, clouds, direct aerosol effect Anthropogenic emissions of black carbon (BC) aerosols are generally thought to warm the climate. However, the magnitude of this warming remains highly uncertain due to limited knowledge of BC sources; optical properties; and atmospheric processes such as transport, removal, and cloud interactions. Here, we assess and constrain estimates of the historical warming influence of BC using recent observations and emission inventories. Based on simulations from four climate models, we show that the current global mean surface temperature change from anthropogenic BC due to aerosol-radiation interaction spans a factor of three—from +0.02 ± 0.02 K to +0.06 ± 0.05 K. Rapid atmospheric adjustments reduce the instantaneous radiative forcing by nearly 50% (multi-model mean), substantially lowering the net warming. Yet, recent satellite constraints suggest a stronger effect, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive reassessment of BC’s climate influence. 2025-06 published Cell Press doi:10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100428 3162 public Cell Reports Sustainability e100428 1 TRUE 29497906 info:eu-repo/semantics/article