Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge

20730 13 112849 2 340977 document 112849 PIIS2590332225001794.pdf application/pdf 0c67495d17004b67f92574b55cb90547 MD5 4443647 2026-02-18 11:23:41 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20730/7/PIIS2590332225001794.pdf 20730 7 7 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

PIIS2590332225001794.pdf

published 112850 1 340983 document 112850 indexcodes.txt text/plain 892787d0d265ec7aecd8852d0a59f8da MD5 16546 2026-02-18 11:24:22 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20730/8/indexcodes.txt 20730 8 8 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

indexcodes.txt

lightbox.jpg

preview.jpg

medium.jpg

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112849 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112849 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112849 archive 2 disk0/00/02/07/30 2025-07-03 08:27:28 2026-02-18 11:24:10 2025-07-03 08:27:28 article show Zhu B. 2453 0000-0001-9360-6797 Qiu C. Gasser T. 2136 0000-0003-4882-2647 Ciais P. Lamboll R.D. Ballantyne A. Chang J. Chaudhary N. Gallego-Sala A.V. Guenet B. Holden J. Joos F. Kleinen T. Kwon M.J. Melnikova I. Müller J. Page S. Salmon E. Schleussner C.-F. 9915 0000-0001-8471-848X Schurgers Guy. Shrivastav G. 2346 Shurpali N.J. Tanaka Katsumasa . Wårlind D. Westermann S. Xi Y. Zhang W. Zhang Y. Zhu D. Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge pub ASA EM ECE IACC ICI northern peatlands; carbon; greenhouse gases; temperature feedback; overshoot; climate change; land surface model; reduced-complexity earth system model Meeting the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires limiting future carbon emissions, yet current policies make temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C target likely. The potential climate feedback from destabilizing peatlands, storing large amounts of carbon, remains poorly quantified. Using the reduced-complexity Earth System Model OSCAR with an integrated peat carbon module, we found that across various overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed 1.5°C–2.5°C, northern peatlands exhibit net positive feedback, amplifying the overshoot challenge. Warming increases peatlands’ net carbon uptake, but this is largely offset by higher methane emissions. We estimated that for each 1°C increase in peak warming, the positive feedback from peatlands decreases the remaining carbon budget by 37 GtCO2 (22–48 GtCO2). If the 1.5°C temperature target is exceeded, peatlands would increase carbon removal requirement by about 40 GtCO2 (16–60 GtCO2) (8.6%). Our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for northern peatlands for estimating climate feedbacks, especially under overshoot scenarios. 2025-08-15 published doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101353 3694 2885 3686 3389 public One Earth 8 8 e101353 1 TRUE 25903322 Permafrost thaw and the changing arctic coast: science for socio-economic adaptation (Nunataryuk, H2020 773421) Response of the Earth System to overshoot, Climate neUtrality and negative Emissions (RESCUE, HE 101056939) Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE, H2020 101003687) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101056939//RESCUE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/773421/EU//Nunataryuk; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003687/EU//PROVIDE info:eu-repo/semantics/article