Land remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the Paris Agreement due to lack of data comparability

20784 6 110620 2 334904 document 110620 s43247-025-02494-9.pdf application/pdf b3de99fb004e7ae9b02d4d16d88c97d3 MD5 1119562 2025-07-29 11:42:49 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20784/1/s43247-025-02494-9.pdf 20784 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110620 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110620 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110620 archive 2 disk0/00/02/07/84 2025-07-29 11:45:54 2025-07-29 11:45:54 2025-07-29 11:45:54 article show Roman-Cuesta R.M. den Elzen M. Araujo-Gutierrez Z. 2366 0000-0002-2228-7079 Forsell N. 1999 Lamb W.F. McGlynn E. Melo J. Rossi S. Meinshausen M. Federici S. Gidden M. 2108 0000-0003-0687-414X Keramidas K. Korosuo A. Grassi G. Land remains a blind spot in tracking progress under the Paris Agreement due to lack of data comparability pub BNR IBF ECE IACC Land carbon fluxes are key to the Paris Agreement. However, data comparability issues persist between countries’ land greenhouse gas inventories and mitigation targets, and what land models (bookkeeping and integrated assessments) provide as Paris-aligned benchmarks for land. As a result, the Global Stocktake, aiming to track collective mitigation progress, did not explicitly consider country targets for land. This blind spot leaves countries uninformed of the 2030 gap between their ambitions for mitigation on land and models’ benchmarks. Here we track the contribution and evolution of land-related targets under countries’ 2020 Nationally Determined Contributions, splitting land pledges between reduced emissions and additional sinks. Land retains a quarter of the global mitigation pledges in 2030, mostly relying on external support (−1.5ǂ1.1 GtCO 2 e/yr), of which −0.55 GtCO 2 e/yr are additional sinks. It is crucial that future Global Stocktakes include appropriate comparisons between modelled and country-provided land use net emissions. We here offer some concrete suggestions. 2025-07-28 doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02494-9 3451 93 103 public Communications Earth & Environment 6 1 e598 TRUE 2662-4435 https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29149394.v1 data info:eu-repo/semantics/article