Beyond the Floodplain: Integrating Probabilities and Storylines to Explore Regional Uncertain Direct and Cascading Climate Risks in Multi‐Sectoral Systems

20807 7 110729 2 335213 document 110729 Earth s Future - 2025 - Buskop - Beyond the Floodplain Integrating Probabilities and Storylines to Explore Regional.pdf application/pdf 05d4d32bb6b49bdf451b549e281585a0 MD5 4833204 2025-08-06 08:58:27 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20807/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202025%20-%20Buskop%20-%20Beyond%20the%20Floodplain%20%20Integrating%20Probabilities%20and%20Storylines%20to%20Explore%20Regional.pdf 20807 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Earth s Future - 2025 - Buskop - Beyond the Floodplain Integrating Probabilities and Storylines to Explore Regional.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110729 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110729 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110729 archive 353 disk0/00/02/08/07 2025-08-06 09:01:12 2025-08-06 09:01:12 2025-08-06 09:01:12 article show Buskop F.E. Weiland F.S. Hochrainer-Stigler S. 7958 0000-0002-9929-8171 Šakić Trogrlić R. 2356 0000-0002-6627-873X van den Hurk B.J.J.M. Beyond the Floodplain: Integrating Probabilities and Storylines to Explore Regional Uncertain Direct and Cascading Climate Risks in Multi‐Sectoral Systems pub ASA SYRR Effective management of future regional climate risks in interconnected multi-sectoral systems is complicated by uncertainties in risk drivers within both human and natural systems. Comprehensive yet comprehensible targeted climate risk information exploring these uncertainties is essential for the strategic allocation of limited resources to vulnerable areas and sectors in the region. Yet conventional approaches struggle to provide it. This study addresses this gap by introducing an interdisciplinary framework incorporating meteorological, hydrological, and socio-economic perspectives. A “plausibilistic” flood risk assessment approach is presented which combines both climate and socio-economic storylines. Plausible climate scenario storylines are sampled based on their relevance for local impacts, allowing the assessment of conditional changes in high-impact probabilistic discharges. Plausible socio-economic storylines are integrated to asses future urban area and economic sectoral development. This information allows the projection of the impact potential in the region and its cascading socio-economic effects. An example application to the flood-prone, transboundary Lielupe basin shared by Latvia and Lithuania highlights sub-catchments and sectors consistently vulnerable across diverse, relevant, and credible set of future storylines. The framework thus equips regional risk managers with targeted and robust risk information, providing a strong knowledge base for prioritizing adaptation planning. 2025-08-05 published Wiley & Sons, Inc. doi:10.1029/2025EF006499 126 3417 public Earth's Future 13 8 e2025EF006499 TRUE 23284277 CLIMAte risk and vulnerability Assessment framework and toolboX (CLIMAAX, HE 101093864) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101093864/EU//CLIMAAX info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess