Charting a transformational course toward a safe and just future: the Earth Commission’s contribution

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110808 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110808 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110808 archive 2 disk0/00/02/08/23 2025-08-13 16:00:04 2025-08-13 16:00:04 2025-08-13 16:00:04 article show 1 Rockström J. Denton F. Norström A.V. Abrams J.F. Alam L. McKay D.I.A. Bai X. Bala G. Boulton C.A. Broadgate W. Bunn S. Buxton J.E. Cardenas J. Ylla-Català R.C. Declerck F. Davis N. Dennis D. Diamond M.L. Folke C. Gonzales C.K.G. Graells G. Gupta J. Hasan S. Jacobson L. Lade S.J. Lenton T.M. Loriani S. Ludwig C. Marquet P.A. Moyo Q.ondi Mukherji A. Nakicenovic N. 395 0000-0001-7176-4604 Obura D. Taikan O. Ospina D. Peña M.F. Pereira L. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Rojas del Mar M. Sarkar A. Shalin A. Stewart-Koster B. Su B. Sumaila R. Thejna T. van Vliet L. van Vuuren D. Verburg P.H. Wang Z. Winkelmann R. Xiao C. Zimm C. 2073 0000-0001-5603-1015 Charting a transformational course toward a safe and just future: the Earth Commission’s contribution submitted ECE IACC TISS POPJUS EQU Humans are now operating well outside the planetary conditions that enabled stable and equitable development. The situation is urgent — we need a swift and profound shift in direction — a collective transformation. In response, the Earth Commission has developed a science-based framework that integrates biophysical limits with justice considerations, aiming to secure a liveable and dignified future for all. The Earth Commission’s first assessment showed that multiple safe and just Earth system boundaries have already been transgressed, threatening the resilience of the planet and the well-being of billions. This paper outlines the vision and scientific strategy for the Earth Commission’s second phase (2024–2027), which focuses on advancing this framework and translating it into actionable budgets and exploring transformation pathways to a safe and just space. Key components include expanding the safe and just boundary assessment to currently under-assessed Earth system processes (e.g., novel entities and ocean change), integrating justice more deeply into the framework, modelling interactions between boundaries and tipping points, and developing practical approaches to cross-scale translation and transformation. Special attention is given to the structural inequalities and power dynamics that shape both environmental degradation and our capacity to act. Through coordinated research, interdisciplinary collaboration, and stakeholder engagement, the Earth Commission seeks to provide knowledge to guide collective efforts toward transforming to a safe and just space for both people and the planet. 2025-08-11 submitted doi:10.22541/essoar.175492980.08779908/v1 214 250 347 public ESS Open Archive FALSE manuscript submitted to Earths Future info:eu-repo/semantics/article