Digital transformation in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110832 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110832 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110832 archive 2 disk0/00/02/08/28 2025-08-22 12:06:58 2025-08-22 12:06:58 2025-08-22 12:06:58 article show 1 Fan Y.V. Wilson C. 8428 0000-0001-8164-3566 Andrijevic M. 9342 0000-0003-0199-1988 Carlsen H. Joshi S. Digital transformation in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways pub ECE S3 TISS Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs); digital transformation Digital transformation refers to the widespread use of digital technologies in ways that reshape societal and economic activity, with significant impacts on sustainable development and climate challenges—both for better and for worse. Using statistical models calibrated to historical evidence in 62 countries across 12 world regions, we project future digital transformation within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), adding contextual richness to this scenario framework used extensively in global climate research. In some scenarios, we find a pervasive and prolonged digital divide with up to 45% of the assessed population by mid-century still residing in countries with relatively low levels of digital transformation despite ever-deepening digitalisation in wealthier countries. We set out six use cases for how our explicit representation of digital transformation within the SSPs enables quantitative assessment of digitalisation’s impact on energy, emissions, climate policy, and Sustainable Development Goals. We also discuss challenges with using empirically calibrated models to project digital transformation given its rapid evolution and socioeconomic implications. 2025-08-22 doi:10.1038/s44168-025-00283-w 333 3207 public npj Climate Action 4 e79 TRUE 2731-9814 Developing circular pathways for a EU low-carbon transition (CircEUlar, HE 101056810) The impacts of digitalised daily life on climate change (iDODDLE, H2020 101003083) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003083/EU//iDODDLE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101056810//CircEUlar info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess