Shifts in precipitation regimes exacerbate global inequality in grassland nitrogen cycles

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110952 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110952 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/110952 archive 353 disk0/00/02/08/48 2025-09-01 08:02:52 2025-09-01 08:02:52 2025-09-01 08:02:52 article show Zheng M. Cui J. Wang X. Zhang X. 2529 0000-0002-1961-3339 Xie Z. Zhang R. Xu X. Gu B. Shifts in precipitation regimes exacerbate global inequality in grassland nitrogen cycles pub ECE ECEPM Grasslands, the Earth’s largest terrestrial ecosystem, provide crucial ecosystem services through biogeochemical cycles. However, these cycles are disrupted by climate change, particularly precipitation changes, limiting grassland productivity. By synthesizing 2944 experimental observations and integrating multiple models, here we show that under the middle-of-the-road scenario, global nitrogen input, harvest, and surplus from grasslands are projected to increase by 10, 7, and 3 million tonnes per year (Tg yr−1), respectively. Substantial regional inequalities are expected. Regions with increased precipitation (mainly the United States, northern Australia, much of Asia) may see a 16 Tg yr−1 increase in nitrogen harvest. Conversely, regions with decreased precipitation (mainly Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia) will see a 9 Tg yr−1 reduction. Timely adaptation measures could reduce nitrogen input and surplus by 12 and 22 Tg yr−1, respectively, while boosting nitrogen harvest by 10 Tg yr−1, potentially averting losses of 238 billion USD by 2050. 2025-08-23 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41467-025-63206-7 3828 public Nature Communications 16 1 e7888 TRUE 2041-1723 no info:eu-repo/semantics/article