A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111017 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111017 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111017 archive 353 disk0/00/02/08/59 2025-09-04 07:20:41 2025-09-04 07:20:41 2025-09-04 07:20:41 article show Gidden M. 2108 0000-0003-0687-414X Joshi S. 9424 Armitage J.J. Christ A.-B. Boettcher M. Brutschin E. 2250 0000-0001-7040-3057 Köberle A.C. Riahi K. 1696 0000-0001-7193-3498 Schellnhuber H.J. 2489 0000-0001-7453-4935 Schleussner C.-F. 9915 0000-0001-8471-848X Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage pub ECE IACC ICI TISS prog_dir Geologically storing carbon is a key strategy for abating emissions from fossil fuels and durably removing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere 1,2 . However, the storage potential is not unlimited 3,4 . Here we establish a prudent planetary limit of around 1,460 (1,290–2,710) Gt of CO 2 storage through a risk-based, spatially explicit analysis of carbon storage in sedimentary basins. We show that only stringent near-term gross emissions reductions can lower the risk of breaching this limit before the year 2200. Fully using geologic storage for carbon removal caps the possible global temperature reduction to 0.7 °C (0.35–1.2 °C, including storage estimate and climate response uncertainty). The countries most robust to our risk assessment are current large-scale extractors of fossil resources. Treating carbon storage as a limited intergenerational resource has deep implications for national mitigation strategies and policy and requires making explicit decisions on priorities for storage use. 2025-09-04 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09423-y 103 3305 3271 250 3723 3686 254 public Nature 645 8079 124-132 9 TRUE 0028-0836 https://cdr.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at/story/prudent-carbon-storage author GeoEngineering and NegatIve Emissions pathways in Europe (GENIE, H2020 951542) Bridging current knowledge gaps to enable the UPTAKE of carbon dioxide removal methods (UPTAKE, HE 101081521) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreeinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/951542/EU//GENIE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101081521/EU//UPTAKE info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess