Global forest carbon leakage and substitution effect potentials: The case of the Swedish forest sector

20885 6 111191 2 336354 document 111191 1-s2.0-S030147972503169X-main.pdf application/pdf cb70a791b271be483908de38e3cbdb71 MD5 5131197 2025-09-22 09:36:28 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20885/1/1-s2.0-S030147972503169X-main.pdf 20885 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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published 111193 1 336371 document 111193 indexcodes.txt text/plain 7d3c6a7ef2447235fa37800e14899920 MD5 16075 2025-09-22 09:46:44 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20885/2/indexcodes.txt 20885 2 2 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111191 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111191 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111191 archive 353 disk0/00/02/08/85 2025-09-22 09:38:19 2025-09-22 09:38:19 2025-09-22 09:38:19 article show Schulte M. Lauri P. 1965 Di Fulvio F. 8861 0000-0002-7317-6360 Forsell N. 1999 Derci Augustynczik A.L. 2314 Eggers J. Hahn T. Jonsson R. Global forest carbon leakage and substitution effect potentials: The case of the Swedish forest sector pub BNR IBF Forest sector, Climate change mitigation, Substitution effects, Leakage effectsTrade, Wood products The forest sector's climate change mitigation depends on forest carbon sequestration, storing carbon in wood products, and avoidance of fossil greenhouse gas emissions by replacing more emission intensive products or energy sources, i.e., the substitution effect. In addition, market responses to changes in wood supply following altered forest management by one region induce climate relevant changes in form of compensatory roundwood harvest outside the region, and thus forest carbon leakage. This study presents a global climate change mitigation assessment of the forest sector, accounting for market-effects leakage. We use a global forest sector model, wood flow analysis and life cycle inventory data to assess the impact of forest management changes on climate change mitigation, with a focus on Sweden. Results suggest decreased wood harvesting causes global net climate change mitigation until 2070, despite forest carbon leakage, forgone wood product carbon storage and forgone substitution effect potentials. Increasing domestic wood removals induces global additional emissions until 2100. Additional domestic wood product consumption is climate beneficial which however depends on substitution effects actually materializing. Roundwood harvest leakage ranges from 40 % to 60 % and forest carbon leakage from 50 % to 80 %. Leakage effects occur mainly in North America and Asia, with a gradual shift towards Latin America over time. To further the climate benefit, drivers of growing demand should be addressed and measures be implemented which promote more efficient and sustainable use of wood as a resource. Only concerted global forest policy cooperation would avoid leakage and with that result in improved global climate change mitigation. 2025-10 published Elsevier doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.127193 173 65 93 3230 public Journal of Environmental Management 393 e127193 1 TRUE 1095-8630 info:eu-repo/semantics/article