Amplified agricultural impacts from more frequent and intense sequential heat events

20899 6 111275 2 336620 document 111275 Hamed_2025_Environ._Res._Lett._20_114001.pdf application/pdf 91bfc899af7e4a84ea28b91f06ecf8b9 MD5 2789739 2025-10-02 08:01:00 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20899/1/Hamed_2025_Environ._Res._Lett._20_114001.pdf 20899 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

Hamed_2025_Environ._Res._Lett._20_114001.pdf

published 111276 1 336626 document 111276 indexcodes.txt text/plain b75d8cb791c608e908b695ae28a487b3 MD5 13732 2025-10-02 08:10:20 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20899/2/indexcodes.txt 20899 2 2 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111275 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111275 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111275 archive 353 disk0/00/02/08/99 2025-10-02 08:02:36 2025-10-02 08:02:36 2025-10-02 08:02:36 article show Hamed R. Steinmann C.B. Ma Q. Balanzategui D. Broadman E. Lesk C. Kornhuber K. 2521 0000-0001-5466-2059 Amplified agricultural impacts from more frequent and intense sequential heat events pub ECE ICI As the climate warms, interacting weather extremes such as sequential heat events pose complex risks to societies. Regarding global agriculture, laboratory experiments suggest that early crop exposure to heat may either confer tolerance or enhance vulnerability to subsequent heat during the critical crop flowering stage. We show that warm early-seasons improve crop yield potential, particularly for soybean and maize, but also increase the impacts of subsequent heat by 5%–55% compared to years with average early-season temperatures. The impacts of this increased yield sensitivity outweigh the benefits of early season heat when mid-season temperature anomalies exceed 0.7 ∘ C–5 ∘ C (depending on the crop). Analyzing projected temperatures under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0, we find a tenfold increase in the likelihood of experiencing sequential heat in early and mid-season crop growth stages, defined as a joint 90th percentile event. Accounting for the interactive effects of early and mid-season warming increases projected temperature-related crop yield losses by 2%–44%, depending on crop and region. These results underline the emerging nonlinear risks from sequential heat extremes to food systems, which can largely be avoided when limiting warming to 1.5 ∘ C globally. 2025-11-01 published Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae06b8 3792 public Environmental Research Letters 20 11 e114001 1 TRUE 1748-9326 info:eu-repo/semantics/article