JMIP 2 Part 1: Technology uncertainty and robustness in Japan’s net-zero pathways

20907 6 111311 2 336702 document 111311 1-s2.0-S2666278725000376-main.pdf application/pdf b6fbf2e6cb444b2a9a03414b772c7e62 MD5 2208666 2025-10-07 06:34:28 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20907/1/1-s2.0-S2666278725000376-main.pdf 20907 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_4

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published 111313 1 336715 document 111313 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 7b2657a6aa1aa17cd7c40ed999006091 MD5 18963 2025-10-07 06:44:16 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20907/2/indexcodes.txt 20907 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111311 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111311 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111311 archive 353 disk0/00/02/09/07 2025-10-07 06:36:20 2025-10-07 06:36:20 2025-10-07 06:36:20 article show Sugiyama M. Shiraki H. Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Wada K. CAO T. Frazer E. Hamasaki H. Kato E. Matsuo Y. Nishiura O. Okubo T. Oshiro K. Otsuki T. Sano F. Yoshida H. JMIP 2 Part 1: Technology uncertainty and robustness in Japan’s net-zero pathways pub ECE S3 TISS Scenario analysis, Integrated assessment model, Energy-economic model, Climate policy, Technological innovation Japan’s commitment to reach net-zero 2050 hinges on innovation in emerging, uncertain technologies. Yet, no study has systematically examined uncertainties in technology development for Japan’s net-zero goal in a multi-model framework. Here, we close this research gap by presenting the results of the Japan Model Intercomparison Project (JMIP) 2. Across models and technology scenarios with wide spreads in costs of emerging technologies, we consistently identify the following robust strategies for net zero: (1) reducing unabated fossil fuels, (2) improving economy-wide energy efficiency, (3) decarbonizing the power sector, and (4) deploying carbon dioxide removal. We also find that although the expansion of variable renewable energy and end-use electrification is robust, the precise level in 2050 remains uncertain. Using technology sensitivity scenarios, we show that the marginal cost of abatement (or carbon price) is significantly affected by the availability of carbon removal. Affordability of hydrogen and ammonia imports significantly affects primary energy supply in some models, underscoring a policy architecture that can flexibly adapt as the techno-economic landscape evolves. 2025-12 published doi:10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100210 2881 public Energy and Climate Change 6 e100210 1 TRUE 2666-2787 info:eu-repo/semantics/article