20934 6 111413 2 336961 document 111413 s41467-025-63026-9.pdf application/pdf ab5e8a7b41d958a5231c66d3662d2da4 MD5 1593570 2025-10-21 07:21:20 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20934/1/s41467-025-63026-9.pdf 20934 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

s41467-025-63026-9.pdf

published 111414 1 336967 document 111414 indexcodes.txt text/plain 295d9fcc8b3a15dd0e1feecb9ec834a2 MD5 13328 2025-10-21 07:31:50 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20934/2/indexcodes.txt 20934 2 2 text/plain other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 111415 2 336968 document 111415 lightbox.jpg image/png b4e3ebc710bc78b21a94bb439a847153 MD5 64149 2025-10-21 07:31:53 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20934/3/lightbox.jpg 20934 3 3 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 http://eprints.org/relation/islightboxThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 111416 2 336969 document 111416 preview.jpg image/png a41a39fc2065144c4458e3f855138afd MD5 25856 2025-10-21 07:31:53 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20934/4/preview.jpg 20934 4 4 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_preview en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 http://eprints.org/relation/ispreviewThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 111417 2 336970 document 111417 medium.jpg image/png 9c9f36c8be99b55456eba6ccaf4ca46a MD5 9052 2025-10-21 07:31:54 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20934/5/medium.jpg 20934 5 5 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_medium en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 111418 2 336971 document 111418 small.jpg image/png 757bffb2f0284a19facfe0029d8433ec MD5 2053 2025-10-21 07:31:54 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/20934/6/small.jpg 20934 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

small.jpg

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111413 archive 353 disk0/00/02/09/34 2025-10-21 07:31:22 2025-10-21 07:31:22 2025-10-21 07:31:22 article show Ribes A. Tessiot O. Forster P.M. Gillett N.P. Masson-Delmotte V. Rogelj J. 8630 0000-0003-2056-9061 Vautard R. Walsh T. pub ECE IACC TISS In the context of rapid human-caused climate change, regular updates of the state of knowledge of current and future climate are needed. New statistical methods using observational constraints underpinned estimates of present-day human-induced warming and projected future warming in the most recent IPCC report. As time goes by, and new updated observational records become available, how should estimates of the current and projected human-caused climate change be updated? Here, we use a perfect model framework and show that incorporating observations from every new year in observationally constrained projections improves their accuracy, without causing major year-to-year spurious variability on outcomes. The forced warming estimated for the current year also exhibits high enough stability to be considered as a robust indicator of the state of the climate system. 2025-10-17 published Nature Publishing Group doi:10.1038/s41467-025-63026-9 254 public Nature Communications 16 1 e9214 TRUE 2041-1723 info:eu-repo/semantics/article