Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111479 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111479 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111479 archive 2 disk0/00/02/09/46 2025-10-24 10:46:38 2026-02-18 11:38:41 2025-10-24 10:46:38 article show 1 Nauels A. 2522 0000-0003-1378-3377 Nicholls Z. 2343 0000-0002-4767-2723 Möller T. 2502 Hermans T.H.J. Mengel M. Kloenne U. Smith C. 9291 0000-0003-0599-4633 Slangen A.B.A. Palmer M.D. Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades pub ECE IACC ICI Sea levels respond to climate change on timescales from decades to millennia. To isolate the sea-level contribution of historical and near-term GHG emissions, we use a dedicated scenario and modelling framework to quantify global and regional sea-level rise commitments of twenty-first century cumulative emissions. Under current climate policies, emissions until 2050 lock in 0.3 m (likely range 0.2–0.5 m) more global mean sea-level rise by 2300 than historical emissions until 2020. This additional commitment would grow to 0.8 m (0.5–1.4 m) for emissions until 2090, of which 0.6 m (0.4–1.1 m) could be avoided under very stringent mitigation. Resulting regional commitments would be around 10% higher than the global signal for the vulnerable Pacific region, mainly due to higher relative Antarctic contributions. Our work shows that multi-century sea-level rise commitments are strongly controlled by mitigation decisions in coming decades. 2025-10-24 published doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02452-5 3757 3377 3734 3162 public Nature Climate Change 15 1198-1204 TRUE 1758-678X https://gitlab.com/magicc/magicc code https://github.com/MetOffice/ProFSea-tool code https://github.com/JonathanGregory/ar5gmslr code https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16572777 data https://gitlab.com/anauels/slr_commitment code Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536) PROjecTing sEa-level rise: from iCe sheets to local implicaTions (PROTECT, H2020 869304) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869304/EU//PROTECT; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003536/EU//ESM2025 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess