As host of COP30, Brazil will be at the centre of this year’s climate summit with the fate of the world’s most vulnerable people at stake. This report shows that the host nation also happens to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the region to climate change induced economic harm. The analysis, based on the latest scientific models, shows that Brazil’s GDP growth is expected to suffer a hit of up to one third (33.1%) by 2100 on current emissions trajectory known as the SSP2 - medium emissions scenario. This would result in global heating of approximately 2.9C by the end of the century, which closely matches UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025 which says we’re on course for 2.8C by 2100. In this scenario the hit to GDP growth in 2075 it would be 19.8% and in 2050 it would be 10.4%.
Under a high emissions scenario (SSP3 – high emissions, which would see temperature rise in 2100 of 3.5C) Brazil would miss out on GDP growth of 12% by 2050, 25.3% by 2075 and 36.6% by 2100. However if global emissions are slowed, under a low emissions scenario (SSP2 – low emissions, 1.6C temperature rise by 2100) the economic harm could be limited to a GDP growth hit of 8.3% in 2050, 10.3% in 2075 and 17.7% in 2100.
As host, Brazil has a responsibility to the rest of the world to push for a strong outcome in Belém that will help deliver climate finance, reduce emissions and accelerate the ‘just transition’ away from fossil fuels.
As this report shows, South America already faces a changing climate which will have a significant impact on national economies, exacerbating problems around agriculture, tourism, human health and conflict.