Morbidity changes induced by future air quality and demographic structure changes

21012 6 111819 2 337915 document 111819 1-s2.0-S2590162125000863-main.pdf application/pdf 91d31d6d03ae9e4a7950e09a16a35299 MD5 5370803 2025-11-27 11:04:09 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21012/1/1-s2.0-S2590162125000863-main.pdf 21012 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111819 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111819 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/111819 archive 353 disk0/00/02/10/12 2025-11-27 11:05:53 2025-11-27 11:05:53 2025-11-27 11:05:53 article show Uchida H. Yamazaki K. Sekizawa S. Fujimori S. 8258 0000-0001-7897-1796 Oshiro K. Jansakoo T. Morbidity changes induced by future air quality and demographic structure changes pub ECE S3 TISS Climate change mitigation policies can enhance health by improving air quality. Previous studies have evaluated historical years lived with disability (YLDs) for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases attributable to particulate matter (PM2.5). However, the impact of dementia, which can significantly affect YLDs, has not been thoroughly examined in the context of climate change mitigation. In this study, we estimated global YLDs attributable to PM2.5 using health impact assessment models and PM2.5 concentrations simulated by a global chemical transport model under two scenarios: with and without climate change mitigation. To address appropriately the issue of dementia, we explicitly considered future demographic patterns, particularly the aging population. YLDs are projected to increase globally by 2100 in both scenarios due to global aging, increasing from 7.1 million years in 2015 to 18 million years without mitigation and to 12.5 million years with it. Mitigation measures could reduce global YLDs by 5.33 million years, by 2100, limiting the increase from 2.5 times to 1.8 times. Although mitigation measures can reduce the health impacts attributable to PM2.5, the role of population aging remains critical for the future. 2025-12 published Elsevier doi:10.1016/j.aeaoa.2025.100396 2881 public Atmospheric Environment: X 28 e100396 1 TRUE 25901621 info:eu-repo/semantics/article