Projecting Labour Market Imbalances and Skill Mismatch Under Demographic Change in the EU

21058 12 112833 2 340936 document 112833 s10680-025-09758-2.pdf application/pdf 659ee7b5ed37b3291da5da8f124166e2 MD5 1575718 2026-02-18 11:08:37 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21058/7/s10680-025-09758-2.pdf 21058 7 7 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

s10680-025-09758-2.pdf

published 112839 2 340959 document 112839 lightbox.jpg image/png 0df835fb6ea8d066974a939fd3865d49 MD5 43653 2026-02-18 11:18:42 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21058/8/lightbox.jpg 21058 8 8 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112833 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112833 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112833 archive 353 disk0/00/02/10/58 2025-12-05 08:54:25 2026-02-18 11:09:31 2025-12-05 08:54:25 article show Marois G. 2145 0000-0002-2701-6286 Potančoková M. 1985 0000-0001-6115-5952 Bezat A. Crespo Cuaresma J. 1838 Projecting Labour Market Imbalances and Skill Mismatch Under Demographic Change in the EU pub POPJUS MDM MIG We assess long-term labour mismatches in the European Union (EU27) by projecting the occupational distribution of workers and skill-specific labour demand up to 2060. Using a dynamic microsimulation approach ( Link4Skills-Mic ), we jointly model demographic, educational, and labour force dynamics at the individual level and combine country-specific projections of labour supply with projections of occupational demand. The analysis highlights growing imbalances: although the supply of highly educated workers continues to rise, shifts in demand are not evenly distributed across skill levels. Consequently, underutilization of high-skilled workers is projected to coexist with persistent vacancies in medium- and low-skilled occupations. Rather than indicating widespread labour shortages, these trends point to structural mismatches driven by the misalignment of worker qualifications, job characteristics, and hiring practices. To explore potential responses, we examine a series of policy scenarios such as expanded immigration, education reform, mid-career retraining, delayed retirement, and employer-led automation and upskilling. The findings show that, while certain policies can reduce specific mismatches, no single intervention closes all the gaps that emerge. Notably, automation reduces vacancies but increases underutilization, whereas human capital strategies shift mismatches across skill levels. These results suggest that addressing future labour mismatches will require coordinated, comprehensive and varied strategies that integrate demographic realities with evolving job demands in Europe’s ageing and increasingly digitalized and knowledge-based economies. 2026-01-09 published Springer doi:10.1007/s10680-025-09758-2 2905 236 58 public European Journal of Population 42 e4 TRUE 1572-9885 An AI-based tool assists the EU in identifying and remedying skills shortages (Link4Skills, HE 101132476) yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101132476//Link4Skills info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess