Evolution of Near‐Term Atmospheric Methane and Associated Temperature Response Under the Global Methane Pledge: Insights From an Earth System Model

21265 6 112501 2 340181 document 112501 Geophysical Research Letters - 2026 - Im - Evolution of Near‐Term Atmospheric Methane and Associated Temperature Response.pdf application/pdf 3a52a71055343e6c58c4f447652c2397 MD5 1585868 2026-01-28 08:50:29 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21265/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202026%20-%20Im%20-%20Evolution%20of%20Near%E2%80%90Term%20Atmospheric%20Methane%20and%20Associated%20Temperature%20Response.pdf 21265 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc_nd_4

Geophysical Research Letters - 2026 - Im - Evolution of Near‐Term Atmospheric Methane and Associated Temperature Response.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112501 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112501 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112501 archive 353 disk0/00/02/12/65 2026-01-28 08:52:15 2026-01-28 08:52:15 2026-01-28 08:52:15 article show Im U. Shindell D. Tsigaridis K. Bauer S. Olivié D. Wilson S. Sørensen L.L. Langen P.L. Eckhardt S. Höglund-Isaksson L. 1786 0000-0001-7514-3135 Klimont Z. 1473 0000-0003-2630-198X Lindl F. 2386 0009-0007-0826-996X Bruhwiler L. Evolution of Near‐Term Atmospheric Methane and Associated Temperature Response Under the Global Methane Pledge: Insights From an Earth System Model pub ECE ECEPM Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas with a shorter lifetime than carbon dioxide (CO2), making it an important target for near-term climate action. The Global Methane Pledge (GMP) aims to cut anthropogenic methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. Using an Earth system model with interactive CH4 sources and sinks, we assess the Pledge's impact through 2050. Results show that current GMP commitments deliver only a 10% cut by 2030—well below the target. Only the maximum technically feasible reduction (MTFR) pathway can achieve the 30% goal. By 2050, current GMP commitments lowers methane concentrations by 3% relative to 2025, while MTFR achieves 8%. Both pathways slow warming slightly, avoiding about 0.1°C of global temperature rise, with the Arctic seeing the greatest benefits (up to 2°C less warming). Without wider participation, the GMP with current signatories will fall short of its targets and Paris Agreement goals. 2026-01-16 published American Geophysical Union doi:10.1029/2025GL118967 128 159 3522 public Geophysical Research Letters 53 1 e2025GL118967 TRUE 1944-8007 info:eu-repo/semantics/article