Multiple introductions of invasive alien species on a Mediterranean Island predicted by horizon scanning

21283 7 112607 2 340410 document 112607 s10530-025-03729-8.pdf application/pdf 6ad044efeca0a60bacf3315eb5acbc62 MD5 1744894 2026-02-03 13:24:54 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21283/1/s10530-025-03729-8.pdf 21283 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112607 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112607 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112607 archive 353 disk0/00/02/12/83 2026-02-03 13:26:35 2026-02-03 13:26:35 2026-02-03 13:26:35 article show Martinou A.F. Demetriou J. Angelidou I. Kassinis N. Melifronidou A. Peyton J. 2414 0000-0002-8313-6194 Roy H.E. Kirschel A.N.G. Multiple introductions of invasive alien species on a Mediterranean Island predicted by horizon scanning pub BNR BEC In 2017 and 2019 two horizon scan workshops were undertaken for the island of Cyprus, which focused on making predictions about the invasive alien species (IAS) most likely to arrive and impact biodiversity, human health and the economy. Herein, we assess the species lists derived from these two horizon scans and consider the accuracy of the predictions so far. In less than ten years, 26 new IAS were found in Cyprus, 10 out of which were predicted to arrive by the horizon scans. Eight introduced IAS were ranked as high risk during the horizon scanning process. Horizon scanning helped raise awareness amongst the authorities, scientists and the public, leading in some cases to a rapid response by the competent authorities to control the arrival. We conclude that horizon scanning is a useful process that can inform contingency planning and action. Furthermore, it facilitates communication between IAS experts, policy makers and society, encouraging active engagement and raising awareness regarding the importance of early warning, rapid response and management of IAS. We propose that the horizon scanning process for the island of Cyprus is repeated regularly, recognizing the ongoing increase in the number of new IAS arriving year on year. 2026-01-31 published Springer doi:10.1007/s10530-025-03729-8 3556 public Biological Invasions 28 2 e41 TRUE 1387-3547 info:eu-repo/semantics/article