Cooling China without warming the planet: climate and co-benefits of HFC phase-down

21295 6 112633 2 340503 document 112633 s41612-025-01289-1.pdf application/pdf c4d3ba4ca6a4205afdb63baff22bfe97 MD5 2336456 2026-02-05 09:09:08 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21295/1/s41612-025-01289-1.pdf 21295 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

s41612-025-01289-1.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112633 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112633 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112633 archive 353 disk0/00/02/12/95 2026-02-05 09:10:42 2026-02-05 09:10:42 2026-02-05 09:10:42 article show Jiang P. 10003 Purohit P. 1873 0000-0002-7265-6960 Xiang X. Chen Z. Bai F. Zhao X. Zhang X. Hu J. Cooling China without warming the planet: climate and co-benefits of HFC phase-down pub ECE ECEPM China’s rapidly expanding cooling sector is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and rising electricity demand, with profound implications for national decarbonization goals and global climate targets. Using a bottom-up, scenario-based model, we quantify direct refrigerant-related and indirect energy-related emissions across four subsectors: room air conditioning, mobile air conditioning, commercial air conditioning, and cold-chain refrigeration. Compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2022–2060, an accelerated transition to low-GWP refrigerants and enhanced energy efficiency (ATE) is projected to reduce cumulative HFC consumption by 12.6 ± 0.4 Gt CO 2 -eq, with 70% of these reductions achieved through compliance with the Kigali Amendment compliance and the remainder from faster adoption. The ATE pathway would also avoid 4.1 Gt CO 2 — ~ 28% of total avoided GHG emissions—along with substantial reductions in SO 2 (1.8 Gt), NO x (3.7 Gt), and PM 2.5 (0.3 Gt), lowering global mean temperature by up to 0.015°C by 2060. These results demonstrate the additional climate benefits achievable when efficiency improvements are implemented alongside Kigali-compliant refrigerant transitions. 2025-12-16 published doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01289-1 3873 239 public npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 9 1 e18 TRUE 2397-3722 info:eu-repo/semantics/article