21326 6 112807 2 340877 document 112807 1-s2.0-S2352771426000170-main.pdf application/pdf aefaba8f66ae78c88b5aa59d446493f6 MD5 4246052 2026-02-18 08:52:34 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21326/1/1-s2.0-S2352771426000170-main.pdf 21326 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_4

1-s2.0-S2352771426000170-main.pdf

published 112810 1 340898 document 112810 indexcodes.txt text/x-c 1aa70c721f248030ce929aad243f0acd MD5 16707 2026-02-18 09:02:48 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21326/2/indexcodes.txt 21326 2 2 text/x-c other Generate index codes conversion from text to indexcodes en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112807 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112807 http://eprints.org/relation/ismediumThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112807 112814 2 340902 document 112814 small.jpg image/png a1006d99af458b88c19fa7a711276278 MD5 2171 2026-02-18 09:02:54 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/21326/6/small.jpg 21326 6 6 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_small en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112807 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112807 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/112807 archive 353 disk0/00/02/13/26 2026-02-18 08:53:47 2026-02-18 08:53:47 2026-02-18 08:53:47 article show Stafford E. Brännström Å. 8085 Kausrud K. Sjödin H. pub ASA CAT EM Mathematical modelling, Flying foxes, Optimal foraging theory, Land-use and land-cover change, Zoonotic spillover Despite their critical role as reservoir hosts for many zoonotic diseases, the impact of land-use and land-cover changes (LCLUC) on flying foxes' interactions with humans remains unclear, posing a potential public health risk. To address this, we apply optimal foraging theory and individual-based modelling to simulate flying-fox movement and population dynamics under various LCLUC scenarios. After validating our model against available data, we analyze the effects of agriculturalization, urbanization, forest fragmentation, and reforestation on flying-fox densities across synthetic landscapes of urban, forest, orchard, and water-body habitats. Our findings indicate that habitat disruption—particularly fragmentation through urbanization—significantly increases the risk of zoonotic spillover events by increasing contacts between species. Scenarios of forest degradation reveal that ecologically degraded forest environments can further exacerbate this risk. Additionally, we find that reforestation can alleviate spillover risk. These results underscore the importance of conservation and habitat restoration as critical strategies for mitigating zoonotic disease transmission. 2026-06 published doi:10.1016/j.onehlt.2026.101333 39 public One Health 22 e101333 1 TRUE 23527714 info:eu-repo/semantics/article